Loosing after 10K hands - I'm I doing something wrong?

    • mrbeast87
      mrbeast87
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.02.2011 Posts: 194
      Hey guys,

      I've been playing poker regularly for 6 months now, and I've managed to go from my initial deposit of 8$ to 600$. I play FR NL cash games.

      So, in the beginning of this month, according to the bankroll management theory, I was ready to start playing NL25. I was confident in my game, and felt I was ready to move up the limits.

      When I started at this new limit, I actually did nice. I didn't notice a great difference from the competition of NL10 and I've managed to make some profit.

      However, in the past couple of weeks, it just seems I can't win... Every time I win, I just loose more in the next session.

      I'm feeling I'm with bad luck, and I've been in very difficult spots lately. But I don't know if I developed bad habits along the way.

      Can you please analyze my stats and tell me if I'm doing something wrong?

      Thanks!




      [img]http://s22.postimage.org/r91ydgls1/image.png[/IMG]
  • 21 replies
    • abhi147
      abhi147
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.08.2011 Posts: 935
      cant really comment much
      but 1 thing i think that might be a small leak is your winning less at showdowns

      But again your went to showdown is pretty ok so it could just be some coolers as its a smallish sample to be honest

      it could well be a downswing

      why dont you post some hands where you lost some money post flop in the hand review forums and see how it couldve been played better
    • ProfitsofDoom
      ProfitsofDoom
      Basic
      Joined: 29.08.2012 Posts: 177
      Just comparing a few of your stats to what i see in Leakbuster, the only things i noticed were that your C-bet %'s for both flop and turn are a little bit on the high side, and your W$SD is pretty low.
    • mrbeast87
      mrbeast87
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.02.2011 Posts: 194
      Well, I guess that the W$SD is lower than expected because I target mostly fishes and since they bet with nothing, maybe I'm calling to SD too much... It may be a leak.

      And you're right, I think I'm CBetting a little too much too...
    • JonikoP
      JonikoP
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      Joined: 15.05.2010 Posts: 600
      Looks to me like you're folding too much to 3-bets.
    • holmeboy
      holmeboy
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      Joined: 29.01.2010 Posts: 1,336
      There's a jump between flop cbet and turn cbet, so your one-and-done (ing) too much imo.

      I'm not sure about FR but your steal % might be too low

      Your 3b% is very low. And your fold to 3b % is huge, way to high.

      Positional stats would be much better than overall stats....
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
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      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      seems like you are mostly playing an ABC game which is easy to read.

      nothing reeeeeaaaaally terrible with that, i think that def will make you money at nl10.
      at nl25 it's not like everyone is totally going to exploit you (like that very high fold to 3bet), but it's where you should start to work deeper into your understanding of the game imo.

      cbetting and showdown stats seem a bit meh, but obv you don't win at showdown as often when you are running bad, so idk.
      i see you are posting hands, so keep at it and you'll just get better eventually, i guess.

      [edit: i agree that positional stats are way more interesting]
    • mrbeast87
      mrbeast87
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.02.2011 Posts: 194
      Thank you holmeboy and Tomaloc, your comments really gave me an insight on my game.

      I must state that the steal attempts reported on my tracking software (Poker Copilot), are only regarding the BU position. So it would be higher if the CO and SB were considered.

      Regarding the 3b% and fold to 3b, right now I'm mostly following the pre-flop charts. I may have to study further on this subject, as it seems a priority.

      I can't access positional stats with Poker Copilot, at least I couldn't find that option...

      Thanks again
    • mrbeast87
      mrbeast87
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.02.2011 Posts: 194
      In the meanwhile I installed PokerTracker4 and weirdly it shows different values when comparing with PokerCopilot. Anyway, I guess PokerTracker is much more reliable, so here are the values:



    • holmeboy
      holmeboy
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      Joined: 29.01.2010 Posts: 1,336
      Yeah pretty much what's been said already, and you need to raise more on the btn and sb. And your 3b + squeeze stats seem low...

      What Tomaloc said too:

      "at nl25 it's not like everyone is totally going to exploit you (like that very high fold to 3bet), but it's where you should start to work deeper into your understanding of the game imo."
    • jachis
      jachis
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.04.2008 Posts: 745
      In pokertracker4 you need the stat Fold to 3bet after Raising.

      Fold to PF 3bet counts even when you are BB, BTN opens, SB 3bets and you fold, thats why the stat is so high. Dont understand whats the point of such stat.
    • mrbeast87
      mrbeast87
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.02.2011 Posts: 194
      jachis, I enabled Fold to 3bet after Raising, but then in my reported it is showed as 2Bet PF & Fold, but I guess it's the same. The stat:

      2Bet PF & Fold = 72.53

      I'm I folding too much to 3bets? As I already said, I'm mainly following pre-flop charts, and they advice to only play 3bets with KK+. However, sometimes I call loose aggressive players with JJ+ or AK (only when in position).
    • holmeboy
      holmeboy
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      Joined: 29.01.2010 Posts: 1,336
      Thats ok actually

      if you raise 3bb and get 3bet 9bb then he needs you to fold:

      9/(9+3+1.5) = 67%

      So 72.53 is ok @nl25 I guess
    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
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      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      Originally posted by holmeboy
      Thats ok actually

      if you raise 3bb and get 3bet 9bb then he needs you to fold:

      9/(9+3+1.5) = 67%

      So 72.53 is ok @nl25 I guess
      Erm, not really. Shouldn't it be less than 67%? And theoretically it should be much lower than 67% because if villain knows you fold to 3bet more than 67% of the time, he will 3bet you with any 2 cards and still be profitable.
    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      Originally posted by mrbeast87
      jachis, I enabled Fold to 3bet after Raising, but then in my reported it is showed as 2Bet PF & Fold, but I guess it's the same. The stat:

      2Bet PF & Fold = 72.53

      I'm I folding too much to 3bets? As I already said, I'm mainly following pre-flop charts, and they advice to only play 3bets with KK+. However, sometimes I call loose aggressive players with JJ+ or AK (only when in position).
      At NL25 it is definitely way too tight to only call/raise vs 3bet with JJ+ or AK. Vs laggy players(or rather people who 3bet alot) many suited connectors play very well too (IP of course) If you play so tight vs a 3bet some regs will exploit you quickly (esp at NL25 and above). If you are uncomfortable with suited connectors at least call KQs, AJs and AQs IP. I think they are too strong to fold IP vs a 3bet from a non-nit.
    • holmeboy
      holmeboy
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      Joined: 29.01.2010 Posts: 1,336
      Originally posted by tommygecko
      Originally posted by holmeboy
      Thats ok actually

      if you raise 3bb and get 3bet 9bb then he needs you to fold:

      9/(9+3+1.5) = 67%

      So 72.53 is ok @nl25 I guess
      Erm, not really. Shouldn't it be less than 67%? And theoretically it should be much lower than 67% because if villain knows you fold to 3bet more than 67% of the time, he will 3bet you with any 2 cards and still be profitable.
      Yeah it should be less than 67%, but this is nl25 so 72% will be ok. Your not going to get many guys exploiting you like has been said.

      At this stage he should start looking deeper into the game; like realising he needs to at least 67% and learn how to defend against 3bs by constructing 4b/c and 4b/f ranges and with what frequencies to do it with.
    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
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      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      Originally posted by holmeboy
      Originally posted by tommygecko
      Originally posted by holmeboy
      Thats ok actually

      if you raise 3bb and get 3bet 9bb then he needs you to fold:

      9/(9+3+1.5) = 67%

      So 72.53 is ok @nl25 I guess
      Erm, not really. Shouldn't it be less than 67%? And theoretically it should be much lower than 67% because if villain knows you fold to 3bet more than 67% of the time, he will 3bet you with any 2 cards and still be profitable.
      Yeah it should be less than 67%, but this is nl25 so 72% will be ok. Your not going to get many guys exploiting you like has been said.

      At this stage he should start looking deeper into the game; like realising he needs to at least 67% and learn how to defend against 3bs by constructing 4b/c and 4b/f ranges and with what frequencies to do it with.
      Yup NL25 is a really good place to start. But as he said he's losing (albeit the small sample) so one of the leaks he can address to improve his wr is to defend more vs 3bets, at this limit.
    • mrbeast87
      mrbeast87
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      Joined: 22.02.2011 Posts: 194
      Thanks for all the feedback. :f_cool:

      I guess my first priority right now is to improve my PF game. As you said, my major leak is 3betting too little and folding too much to 3bets.

      I'll also cbet less and try to steal more.

      I've been without playing for a couple of days to relax, I think I'll read some strategy articles and then I'll hit the tables :s_cool:
    • tommygecko
      tommygecko
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      Joined: 11.08.2012 Posts: 1,229
      all the best! :f_thumbsup:
    • holmeboy
      holmeboy
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      Joined: 29.01.2010 Posts: 1,336
      Originally posted by mrbeast87
      Thanks for all the feedback. :f_cool:

      I guess my first priority right now is to improve my PF game. As you said, my major leak is 3betting too little and folding too much to 3bets.

      I'll also cbet less and try to steal more.

      I've been without playing for a couple of days to relax, I think I'll read some strategy articles and then I'll hit the tables :s_cool:
      Try running some filters in PT of common scenarios like:

      called 2b pre
      faced 3b
      did 3b
      called cbet/2 barrel

      And whatever else you can think of. It'll only take a few mins and you'll get to find out where you're losing the most money. Then with that info, and the comments here, pick one topic at a time and go over some of the hands and read some articles/watch vids on that topic.
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