Please, help me with statistic interpretation

    • onedayhere
      onedayhere
      Basic
      Joined: 20.03.2013 Posts: 8
      1. I play HU SNG Turbo
      2. I use PokerTracker for statistic analize
      3. During last week for 3100 All-ins i've got:
      - BB Won Withoutshowdown = 400 bb
      - BB Net Expected Won = 300 bb

      But BB Won With showdown = - 300 bb

      As result BB Won = 100 bb.

      Please tell me, is it dispersion, or i'm just bad player?

      PT graph: http://f1.s.qip.ru/y4Fn4So9.png
  • 9 replies
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Basically your sample size is tiny, there is no way we can tell if this is just card distribution variance.

      But just for the sake of completion, your EV line says you should have won 200BB more than you have in all in situations, which means the EV of your Showdown winnings line should be -100BB, so you are getting it in bad generally. But as I said, this is way too small a sample to interpret anything from.
    • onedayhere
      onedayhere
      Basic
      Joined: 20.03.2013 Posts: 8
      Ok, i`ll try to get more distance.

      How mush all-in hands will be enougth?
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Hmmm I may have misunderstood you, are those 3k hands filtered as hands where you went all in? If so then it's a more relevant sample size. If you could post the graph of all hands played it might be more helpful. :)
    • onedayhere
      onedayhere
      Basic
      Joined: 20.03.2013 Posts: 8
      Yes, it was filtered hands.

      Full history here: http://f2.s.qip.ru/12ssF4vDZ.png

      I will be very grateful for the advice.
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Ahhh ok, well it is still a small sample, but it's better.

      Basically you are getting all in quite loosely, which is why your Non Showdown winnings are going up so steadily, as you're getting a lot of folds.

      You're also under EV by about 17k chips, which means if luck wasn't taken into account in all in situations, your showdown winnings would be 17k higher than it is, which means your showdown winnings would be about -10k.

      So this is still a negative figure, which means when you go all in your are usually behind your opponents hand, as a reference point i'll put my graph in spoilers below, I play Hyper HU SnGs so it's not exactly the same but oh well.




      Whilst it is good that you're aggressive with your all ins, I suspect you haven't got the balance quite right at the moment, as ideally you should be shoving with hands that have fairly good equity against a calling range, rather than ones dominated by a calling range (For example, A2 is a really poor hand to be shoving 25bb deep as a lot of villains calling range has you absolutely crushed (eg A5+), whereas 55 is a good hand to be shoving because you get fold equity and when you are called it's usually a flip).

      Maybe you could attach a graph of hands where you called all ins, and maybe you can find out if you're calling your opponents shoves too loosely?
    • onedayhere
      onedayhere
      Basic
      Joined: 20.03.2013 Posts: 8
      Here you can find all preflop all-in hands (my all-in's + opp all-in's): http://f3.s.qip.ru/12ssF4vE1.png

      As I understand, I've got rather good EV, but the same time it fantastiс unfortune. Is not it?
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Hmmm it does seem that your preflop all ins are better than the previous graph, maybe you are calling or shoving too lightly postflop?
    • onedayhere
      onedayhere
      Basic
      Joined: 20.03.2013 Posts: 8
      Look, I have no problem with EB on this chart. Am I right?

      And everything will have to match on the distance?
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      Okay obviously you don't want any sort of detailed analysis.

      Yes you have run bad.

      Yes you could improve.

      There.