[NL2-NL10] combo draw vs reg oop 100bb deep

    • pokerferrer
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      Which line here is the best?

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($93.14)
      BB ($26.15)
      UTG ($13.52)
      Hero ($22.11)
      CO ($16.35)
      BTN ($10.85)

      BTN antes $0.02
      SB antes $0.02
      BB antes $0.02
      UTG antes $0.02
      Hero antes $0.02
      CO antes $0.02

      Dealt to Hero 8:spade: 7:spade:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, BTN calls $0.30, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.87) T:spade: 3:spade: 7:heart:

      Hero bets $0.60, BTN calls $0.60

      TURN ($2.07) T:spade: 3:spade: 7:heart: J:heart:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $1.30, Hero raises to $3.80, BTN raises to $9.93 (AI), Hero calls $6.13
  • 1 reply
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,014
      considering antes you should probably make it like 4x from mp, unless people are just not caring and folding a lot anyway.

      turn c/r is very overplayed, your hand looks good but it just won't do well against anything that continues vs your c/r.
      your draws aren't strong ones either.

      best case scenario (which isn't very realistic) is something like:

      Board: T:spade: 3:spade: 7:heart:  J:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP3    27.60%  27.11%   0.49% { 8s7s }
      SB     72.40%  71.92%   0.49% { JJ-TT, JTs, 98s, KsQs, AsJs, AhTh }

      equity needed to call against his shove is $6.13/$21.93 = ~28%.
      so, considering that you are barely breaking even if he shoves all hands in the best case scenario, as played you should still fold against the shove. :f_eek:

      so, how to play? i think c/c and reevaluate river is best.
      you can't get pushed off your equity and that card quite improves his range. i don't think he folds anything that called flop to a second barrel.

      if the river blanks i think it's more of a c/f.
      while he can have missed spades or even missed hearts, his value range isn't too narrow. he has at least 89/TJ/AJ and even more if he can vbet thinly, like all broadways Jx and AT.