[NL20-NL50] NL50 - middle pair, plan?

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Villain looks kinda nitty
      19/16/250h
      90% fold sb to steal
      5% call
      5% resteal

      0% donk.

      So should I fold flop? I thought it was close but I could sometimes turn my hand into bluff? I don't expect him to give up on turn.

      How bad is the ace? Was considering raising for a moment. I now realize that he pbb doesn't have 2 pair although he might be more inclined to call preflop because of fishy player in BB

      Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 2150358
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      CO: $27.14
      Hero (BTN): $50.00
      SB: $105.29
      BB: $132.91
      UTG: $50.00

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with 6 :spade: 8 :heart:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.75, 1 fold

      Flop: ($2.50) 9 :spade: 6 :diamond: 3 :spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

      Turn: ($5.50) A :club: (2 players)
      SB bets $3.50, Hero folds
  • 7 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      flop - i think his pre flop calling range is probably broadway heavy which means he wouldnt fold this flop. he could have a fair amount of middle pairs like 66 88 99 which would fold to a bet. i think we could either check/fold this flop since it hits him so hard or try a small bet like 2 dollars to fold out middle pocket pairs.

      turn - when he calls he probably has the A and some gut shots and pairs and i dont think hes folding here so we can check and give up. raising is overplaying because if hes betting here usually its the A and thats what we are trying to fold, not such a good plan. i think if he has a draw like KQ he would check back here.

      someone with 19/16 is probably not considering so much of who is in the blinds and playing just by their cards

      cgf
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      oops wrong hand , 1 sec
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      edited
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      It's cool. Closed thread.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Do you mind to also judge this hand? (68) :rolleyes:
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      pre flop - he has 90% fold to steal which means he is playing his top 10% range here, perhaps he 3bets some hands like AA KK AK AQs and the rest are broadways and some pocket pairs.

      flop - 0% donk, and now he does with a strong range, i think we can just fold it here. raising is bad, do u think hes folding a hand like QK KJ, maybe sometimes.

      Turn - how hard does A hit a 10% range?

      this is the flop against his range assuming he donks out everything (for the purposes of showing hand strength changes upon the A)

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 41.78% 41.74% 0.04% QQ-77, AQs-A9s, KTs+, QTs+, AQo-ATo, KQo
      MP3 58.22% 58.18% 0.04% 8h6s (you are ahead here)

      now this is when the A comes on the turn

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 66.30% 66.30% 0.00% QQ-77, AQs-A9s, KTs+, QTs+, AQo-ATo, KQo
      MP3 33.70% 33.70% 0.00% 8h6s (now you are behind)


      changes quite alot doesn't it? he has alot of Ax in his range so if we think hes betting broadways we can bluffcatch the flop but on the turn i think we can fold already.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Yeah but I don't believe he donks random overpairs, he should have at least a fd right?

      So yes agree with folding flop