running below ev? please help

    • tonyzer
      tonyzer
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2012 Posts: 47
      hey guys ive heard people saying hes running waay below expected value
      but i dont know what does it mean , i mean how can i see iv im below ev and its a downswing or im spewing money and playing bad? is there a software that can do this like hm or pt4? thx for advice in advance ;)
  • 4 replies
    • kidzoltan
      kidzoltan
      Platinum
      Joined: 05.08.2010 Posts: 815
      Yes, the softwares have the option to show your graph's all-in expected value.
    • maythany
      maythany
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2011 Posts: 1,189
      Say both me and my opponent have 100BB Stacks

      Pre-flop: Hero is BU with AA

      6 folds, CO raises 4BB, Hero raises 12BB, 2 folds, CO is All-In.

      What a great spot. You hold aces and have the opportunity to go all-in before the flop. It's a straightforward call. It should be obvious that you will make a profit (the EV is greater than 0).

      What if we want to know the exact EV? First we need to determine the possible outcomes. You could win everything that lies in the pot, 100BB from your opponent, 12BB that you have already invested and 1.5BB from the blinds (a total of 113.5BB).

      We will call this result x1 = 113.5 BB.

      The other possibility, it the loss of 88BB, that you're yet to call, hence x2 = −88BB

      Now we need to determine the probability of both outcomes. If you assume your opponent holds QQ, KK, AA or AKs your share of the pot is 80.4% which leaves your opponent with 19.5%.

      Hence your EV is:

      EV = x1p(x1) + x2p(x2) = (113,5 • 0,804 − 88 • 0,195)BB = (91,25 − 17,16)BB = 74,09BB.


      If your aces lose here then you are running below EV.
    • metza
      metza
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      Note that while Maythany's calculations are correct, PT4/HEM will calculate your all in EV based on the total pot size after you go all in, and your equity on the street when the money went in.

      So if you have AA, your opponent 4bets and you 5bet to 50bb. He calls.

      Flop is 555.

      Opponent goes all in for 50bb, you call 50bb at a pot of 150bb for 3:1 pot odds.

      Opponent shows T5o and wins.

      PT4/HEM will calculate your EV as ~1% equity of 200bb, and when you lose there will be almost no deviation between the $ won and EV$ won so it will look like a standard loss, when actually you're getting insanely unlucky here and it is definitely
      +EV to call with AA on this flop after 5betting preflop.

      So the EV line can be very misleading.
    • maythany
      maythany
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2011 Posts: 1,189
      Originally posted by metza
      Note that while Maythany's calculations are correct, PT4/HEM will calculate your all in EV based on the total pot size after you go all in, and your equity on the street when the money went in.

      So if you have AA, your opponent 4bets and you 5bet to 50bb. He calls.

      Flop is 555.

      Opponent goes all in for 50bb, you call 50bb at a pot of 150bb for 3:1 pot odds.

      Opponent shows T5o and wins.

      PT4/HEM will calculate your EV as ~1% equity of 200bb, and when you lose there will be almost no deviation between the $ won and EV$ won so it will look like a standard loss, when actually you're getting insanely unlucky here and it is definitely
      +EV to call with AA on this flop after 5betting preflop.

      So the EV line can be very misleading.
      +1