[NL2-NL10] AKo AI flop

    • Chowchow12
      Chowchow12
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.06.2012 Posts: 338
      Preflop is pretty standard i feel, 3bet from SB and get a flop call, i then lad out and got Raised. I cbet because I do have some equity in the pot.
      Villan is 26/18 over 100 hands

      This is where I am stuck I put him on a range something like this:
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: Qc5c2c
      Equity Win Tie
      UTG 55.44% 55.37% 0.07% { QQ-99, AQs, KQs, QTs+, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, Tc9c, AQo, KQo, QJo }
      UTG+1 44.56% 44.49% 0.07% { AhKc }

      I was risking $2.28 to make $8.56 so i needed something like 25% equity to call here. I was pretty sure I had it with taking any club to be an out. I wasnt sure if I could take an A or K to be an out.

      How is my thought process here?

      Prima, $0.02/$0.04 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $4.19 (104.8 bb)
      MP: $4.51 (112.7 bb)
      CO: $4 (100 bb)
      BTN: $4.35 (108.7 bb)
      Hero (SB): $4.22 (105.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A K
      MP calls $0.04, CO raises to $0.16, BTN folds, Hero raises to $0.52, BB calls $0.48, MP folds, CO calls $0.36

      Flop: ($1.60) Q 2 5 (3 players)
      Hero bets $1.20, BB folds, CO raises to $3.48 and is all-in, Hero ??
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Chow,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: What do we know about BB? He is important as well.

      I think it's pretty unrealistic to expect all 99-JJ to stack off. Only have of them have the clubs so at best I'd put those in, but even that is quite optimistic. After all we cbet big into 2 guys after we 3-bet.

      So look at your equity against a more realistic range.

      Also, I don't see why we had to cbet 75% pot there.Closer to 50% would of sufficed.
    • Chowchow12
      Chowchow12
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.06.2012 Posts: 338
      I took a look at it again and i agree with you. I wasn't thinking it through so I did something like this:
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: Qc5c2c
      Equity Win Tie
      UTG+1 56.57% 56.57% 0.00% { QQ, QTs+, AcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, KQo, QJo }
      UTG+2 43.43% 43.43% 0.00% { AhKc }


      It wasn't a drastic change. Or is my range still out? If I am completely out to lunch here what is something you would suggest.

      I had bet 3/4 since it was super wet and 2 people.. Now looking at it, should i have even bet? I still felt like i had equity here. I guess I am wanting to see the next card for cheaper, so that makes sense to bet half size in this situation.

      BB was 30/27, so I really did run the risk of getting check raised here by him. Maybe checking would have been a better line since i doubt i would often be taking the pot right here.

      What do you think?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Chowchow12
      I took a look at it again and i agree with you. I wasn't thinking it through so I did something like this:
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: Qc5c2c
      Equity Win Tie
      UTG+1 56.57% 56.57% 0.00% { QQ, QTs+, AcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, KQo, QJo }
      UTG+2 43.43% 43.43% 0.00% { AhKc }


      It wasn't a drastic change. Or is my range still out? If I am completely out to lunch here what is something you would suggest.

      I had bet 3/4 since it was super wet and 2 people.. Now looking at it, should i have even bet? I still felt like i had equity here. I guess I am wanting to see the next card for cheaper, so that makes sense to bet half size in this situation.

      BB was 30/27, so I really did run the risk of getting check raised here by him. Maybe checking would have been a better line since i doubt i would often be taking the pot right here.

      What do you think?
      I think you are still off because you are including hands like QThh or QJhh for example. I doubt many people will shove TP no kicker no redraw.

      As far as the bet goes I agree that a stab with two people behind is a bit optimistic and you generally have to double barrel (shove turn) to get rid of pairs and even then you may have a hard time. So I would look to ck/fold.

      But if we bet 1/2 pot does the same job as 3/4 and only has to work 33% of the time.