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[NL2-NL10] JJ vs push after squeeze

    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      Nasty spot, the pusher seems to be adequate, but his move is silly, especially when open raiser is a lose (unknown for me) fish.

      BU was 8/8, 10 hands
      CO was about 60/40, 10 hands

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($10.15)
      BB ($4.85)
      UTG ($10)
      UTG+1 ($8.28)
      CO ($8.83)
      BTN ($8.70)

      Dealt to Hero J:club: J:diamond:

      fold, fold, CO raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1.40, fold, fold, BTN raises to $8.70 (AI), Hero ??
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Pokerf

      I think that this is a fold here simply given the pot odds.

      I suggest you equilab your hand versus a range you think he has and look at how much equity we need.

      We'd have to call 7.3 into a pot of ~18 so we need 41% before rake.
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      POT = (8.70 * 2 + 0.1 + 0.05 + 0.3) * 0.95
      Have to call: 8.70 - 1.40 = 7.30
      So I need 7.30 / 16,9575 = 0.43 or 43% equity vs his range.
      Let's check in the PokerStove. I'm pretty sure he will never play AA and KK such way. But I give him half of these combinations, all AK. 1 combination 99 as bluff, and all TT - I expect to see this most of the time.

      Hand 0: 48.358% 46.82% 01.53% 173177232 5677041.00 { JJ }
      Hand 1: 51.642% 50.11% 01.53% 185326350 5677041.00 { KK-TT, 9c9h, AKs, AKo }

      So it looks like a pretty easy call vs his such a wide range. (I mean "wide" because of all KK here.)
      Even if I add all AA I will have 44% equity.

      Where is my mistake?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by pokerferrer
      POT = (8.70 * 2 + 0.1 + 0.05 + 0.3) * 0.95
      Have to call: 8.70 - 1.40 = 7.30
      So I need 7.30 / 16,9575 = 0.43 or 43% equity vs his range.
      Let's check in the PokerStove. I'm pretty sure he will never play AA and KK such way. But I give him half of these combinations, all AK. 1 combination 99 as bluff, and all TT - I expect to see this most of the time.

      Hand 0: 48.358% 46.82% 01.53% 173177232 5677041.00 { JJ }
      Hand 1: 51.642% 50.11% 01.53% 185326350 5677041.00 { KK-TT, 9c9h, AKs, AKo }

      So it looks like a pretty easy call vs his such a wide range. (I mean "wide" because of all KK here.)
      Even if I add all AA I will have 44% equity.

      Where is my mistake?
      I say it's really optimistic, at these limits, to give him 99 and TT in his range. I think that given his stack he can 4-bet shove KK and AA.

      However, if you expect such a wide range then calling is fine. But I wouldn't expect a wide range from an unknown non-fishy looking guy.