[NL2-NL10] [10NL]AA vs fish facing turn raise

    • bmfbpi
      bmfbpi
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.09.2008 Posts: 590
      Known Players:
      MP2: $10.00 - 100 bb
      MP3: $12.30 - 123 bb
      CO: $10.57 - 106 bb
      BU: $10.00 - 100 bb
      SB: $19.10 - 191 bb
      BB: $4.00 - 40 bb

      0.05/0.10 No Limit Hold'em (6 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.319.3

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A:heart: , A:club:
      Hero posts small blind ($0.05), BB posts big blind ($0.10), MP2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises for $0.35, BB folds, MP3 calls

      Flop: ($0.90 - 9 bb) Q:diamond: , T:heart: , 4:club: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $0.90, MP3 calls

      Turn: ($2.70 - 27 bb) 7:spade: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $2.60, MP3 raises for $7.20, Hero ?

      Villain is 54/10 over 250 hands

      when he calls flop i put him on Qx, Tx, 9J,44,45, 88,77,66 (although i think he would have raised 88 and 77) ( i remove AQ, TT, QQ from his range as he would have raised those pre given his PFR)

      once he raises me on the turn i really don't think he does this with a hand that i have good equity against.

      Basically on the turn i put him on 2 pair combos, sets and the occasional KQ and AQ he didn't raise pre.


      Board: Q:diamond: T:heart: 4:club:  7:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    48.79%  48.79%   0.00% { AhAc }
      MP3    51.21%  51.21%   0.00% { 77, 44, AQs, KQs, QTs+, Q7s, Q4s, AQo, KQo, QTo, Q7o }


      PS: in hem i am getting that my pot odds are 2.7:1 (27%), so in theory i need 27% to breakeven, but although I've got more, I don't know how a call could be profitable. Am I missing something ?
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi bmf

      Preflop: why are we isolating so small OOP? I would make it at least 5x here.

      Postflop: Considering how larger we bet both streets we should simply go for a bet/fold.

      We don't beat almost anything that raises us on the turn at these limits.