HU hypers downswing question

    • betdraw
      betdraw
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2010 Posts: 433
      Hello, I have just started playing hu hypers. Already on my 1st downswing and here comes my question : how to find if it is variation, bad plays or combination of both. Here are some graphs (I do not know which filters are more appropriate to show the reason of the downswing) that is why I am using basics.





      Thanks in advance.
  • 4 replies
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      I don't think you can judge by such a small sample. We have to make some assumptions of what our expected winrate is, what sample we have, what's the rake % and then see how wild the variance can get.

      I suggest using:

      "Heads Up SNG Poker Variance Calculator" to get a better idea of the variance.

      Cheers!
    • zilltine
      zilltine
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.03.2010 Posts: 395
      most likely you suck and you run bad also
    • MisterHomes
      MisterHomes
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.09.2008 Posts: 128
      It looks to me like you are on average expecting a positive return from your entry - i.e., the entry is 1.44$ and you might expect to win on average 1.47$. However, this is not enough to overcome the rake of 1.44 + 0.06 = 1.50$

      However, as the poster above said, your sample is too small. Even if you start to become a winner after a large sample, it is definitely worth watching videos on Pokerstrategy to help improve your game. It's not worth it to play 1-2k tournaments and find out you're a losing player (after rake).

      Yes, you are on a downswing. But, unfortunately, 40 BI downswings are the nature of hyper turbos. The best way to reduce your downswings is to increase your win rate (i.e., your ROI)!

      Don't worry, you are not playing horrible as the not very nice poster above suggests. Your EV results suggest you are approximately middle (or slightly higher) of the pack. The fact of the matter is, though, that you will have to improve if you want to get sustainable results long term (it sounds simple, but it's true).

      In summary, find all the videos that you are eligible for with your status on pokerstrategy. Take note of hands where you aren't sure what to do and post it (after reading the rules for posting hands) in the hand evaluation forum for < 5$ sngs. Thinking you know everything and chocking up bad results due to variance is a fatal flaw. You should always be thinking of how you can become a better player!

      Cheers,

      MisterHomes
    • daun666
      daun666
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 540
      400 games is no sample to judge about your game from graph.

      50 bi is not std every day/week downswing but they happen time to time, even bigger downswings happen time to time, all you can do is to incrase winrate so chances of that happening would be smaller