[NL20-NL50] [NL50] KK 3b pot

    • ains21
      ains21
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.06.2011 Posts: 303
      Hello.

      Villain is 15/13/7.1 aggressive nit (2k hands) who doesn't fold much to 3-bets.

      Fold to 3b: 42
      Fold to flop c-bet 3b pot: 29 (7)
      Fold to flop c-bet single raised pot: 32

      Bet flop when checked to by PFR in single raised pot: 55
      Bet turn when checked to by PFR in single raised pot: 29

      (So he doesn't stab/float often in SRP -- seems nitty in this respect too).

      Let me know if you need any other stats here. Pre-flop std, same on flop. Since he isn't the type to float very often, I don't think his calling range has too many AK/AQ here, so maybe something like: QQ-66,T9s,87s,AhKh,AhQh,KhQh,AhTh.

      On the turn what do you think is best play? He may bet a lot of pairs here: 77/88/TT/QQ, but may also check them behind. I think since he is not stabbing much usually he would check them behind. I chose to c/c since I wasn't paying much attention and didn't think properly ... trying to catch out floats (which I think is bad now).

      On the river, as played, what do you do? I don't think he's turning his pairs into bluff too often since he's not that type of player, but maybe some Axh?

      Have a feeling I should have bet turn ... I was actually kind of lost here (mainly because of my own play).

      Thanks!

      Party, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $55.75 (111.5 bb)
      CO: $223.65 (447.3 bb)
      BTN: $50 (100 bb)
      UTG: $19.19 (38.4 bb)
      SB: $56.08 (112.2 bb)
      Hero (BB): $109.09 (218.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K K
      UTG folds, MP raises to $1.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5, MP calls $3.50

      Flop: ($10.25) 6 2 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.87, MP calls $4.87

      Turn: ($19.99) J (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $9.50, Hero calls $9.50

      River: ($38.99) 3 (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $36.38 and is all-in Hero ???
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Hey,

      I would start of by betting slightly bigger on the flop.

      Can you ship some stats like WTSD, WWSF, W$SD and AFq(AGG%)by street please? Those stats can help you whether you should continue vbetting or try to bluffcatch with very good playability and kind of under-represent your hand. Will wait for those stats, tough spot to decide what is best though.
    • ains21
      ains21
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.06.2011 Posts: 303
      • 28.03.2013, 00:42
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by ains21: 28.03.2013 00:43.
      Hi Emanuel, here's the stats.

      WTSD: 28
      WWSF: 28
      W$SD: 57
      AFq: 44/32/16

      This is good actually, since I often do not know how to use these stats effectively in game. What would you say about this WTSD: is it higher or lower than the average? What conclusions can we draw from this (i.e. if it is low that he can make tight folds/that he doesn't call down lightly)?

      These stats make me think that his river shove here is rarely a bluff, since his W$SD is so high and his river agg so low. I don't think he bets too thinly either in this case, which makes QQ or something less likely here. Really interested in your opinion.

      Thanks!
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi,

      I think you should also think about starting positions and ranges. Low F23B is bad for us, since he will have a wider range here. Having low PFR is great for us, because he has fewer speculative hands.

      In general my guess is that he doesn't have too many flushes here. Think about it, what does a MP nit player open from this position? Maybe 10-12%? He folds ~40% to 3bets so I think he is folding the lower portion of his range, while calling with the pocket pairs and AQ. We have Kh which blocks KhQh and KhJh and AhKh from his range. That leaves him with AhQh but that's about it.