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[NL20-NL50] JQ vs overbet river

    • GingerKid
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,588
      iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (SB): 105.16 BB
      BB: 541.34 BB (VPIP: 22.09, PFR: 16.99, 3Bet Preflop: 6.64, Hands: 1,637)
      CO: 115.34 BB (VPIP: 24.31, PFR: 20.37, 3Bet Preflop: 7.32, Hands: 794)
      BTN: 109.24 BB (VPIP: 24.30, PFR: 21.23, 3Bet Preflop: 10.49, Hands: 368)

      Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q:diamond: J:diamond:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

      Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 7:heart: 7:diamond: J:club:
      Hero checks, BB checks

      Turn: (6 BB, 2 players) 3:club:
      Hero bets 3 BB, BB raises to 10 BB, Hero calls 7 BB

      River: (26 BB, 2 players) 6:diamond:
      Hero checks, BB bets 46 BB, Hero calls 46 BB

      Hero shows Q:diamond: J:diamond: (Two Pair, Jacks and Sevens) (Pre 74%, Flop 96%, Turn 100%)
      BB shows 9:diamond: Q:heart: (One Pair, Sevens) (Pre 26%, Flop 4%, Turn 0%)
      Hero wins 114 BB

      I check flop with weak kicker to let him bluff. He raised me last situation blind vs blind. So this time I call his raise, and his overbet looks just as bluff to me. In one of previous situations he bet nearly pot with straight flush so I can conclude that it is a bluff.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      This is such a read based situation.

      Flop: I think having some JX in your checking range is reasonable but I would bet here as a default play.

      Turn: He reps some J7/77/33 and some backdoored draws like 56 67 57 clubs.

      River: His range is polarized here so just ask yourself whether he is bluffing or not. I agree that his line doesn't make any sense at all. If he was crushing the Flop with something like 77/J7 I really doubt he overbets the River. I don't think he slowplays 7X that much cos he would just want to keep betting for value vs your 99/TT/88/JX. So he only reps 33 here and a ton of busted clubs in my opinion so I think calling is reasonable.

      In the grand scheme of things, I think QJ is closer to the upper end of your flop checking range so we can call here too.