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[NL20-NL50] 43s vs raise

    • GingerKid
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,592
      iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: 121.5 BB (VPIP: 24.15, PFR: 20.04, 3Bet Preflop: 8.13, Hands: 1,739)
      UTG: 301.94 BB (VPIP: 31.21, PFR: 26.75, 3Bet Preflop: 11.94, Hands: 161)
      MP: 113.42 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
      CO: 104.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
      BTN: 108.78 BB (VPIP: 20.79, PFR: 14.52, 3Bet Preflop: 6.45, Hands: 314)
      Hero (SB): 101 BB

      Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 4:heart: 3:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

      Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 5:heart: K:diamond: 6:club:
      Hero bets 5 BB, BB raises to 18 BB, Hero raises to 98 BB and is all-in, BB calls 80 BB

      Turn: (202 BB, 2 players) Q:diamond:

      River: (202 BB, 2 players) 6:spade:

      BB shows J:club: K:spade: (Two Pair, Kings and Sixes) (Pre 60%, Flop 63%, Turn 82%)
      Hero mucks 4:heart: 3:heart: (One Pair, Sixes) (Pre 40%, Flop 37%, Turn 18%)
      BB wins 196 BB

      Is it ok to shove on this dry board? I see it as bluff, because people usually just call on dry board even with sets, and if he has it I still have outs.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795

      I don't think shoving here is a good idea unless you have reason to believe that he raise/folds here super often.

      Few things to point out here:
      1) This is BvB, I agree that people don't merge raise for thin value with KT KJ KQ too often at NL25-NL100 but it's still possible
      2) We have other options like calling and evaluating Turn.
      3) I think this is overplay with the lower end of the OESD. We lose to 78 which he may have.

      I like calling more especially if I think he plays straightforward on the Turn. Then we can b/c F c/f T.