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[NL2-NL10] NL10 Zoom middle set vs possible straight 3way

    • Absolutism
      Joined: 09.08.2008 Posts: 4,372
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $12.80 (128 bb)
      SB: $10.86 (108.6 bb)
      BB: $10.22 (102.2 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $17.15 (171.5 bb)
      MP: $12.73 (127.3 bb)
      CO: $10.35 (103.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with T T
      Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

      Flop: ($1.20) 9 T K (4 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.81, BTN calls $0.81, SB raises to $3.05, BB folds, Hero calls $2.24, BTN calls $2.24

      Turn: ($10.35) 7 (3 players)
      SB bets $7.51 and is all-in, Hero folds, BTN calls $7.51

      River: ($25.37) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      SB: 28/20, AF:6, AFQ:44/40/0 (samplesize is too low for turn/river), wtsd:22, 3bet: 12%

      BU:29/5 fish (21 hands).

      I dont think im ever ahead after his raise. He has so high 3bet, that he can never have AK or AA here, would he raise with KQ here 3way? No draws out there, so he can only have KT, K9 very rarely, 99 (he never has KK here) and QJ. Combo-wise, im so far behind i should immediately fold i think.

      Ingame, i couldnt fold, i called the flop, and decided to fold the turn if he shoves, which is stupid, cause i think he will shove 100% of his flop range.
  • 2 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,020
      i agree that he is almost never (semi)bluffing.

      however, did you bother to check your own assumptions "i'm so far behind"? :p
      against that range you mentioned (i think it's quite reasonable) you are actually winning, even including all QJo:

      Board: 9:diamond: T:spade: K:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    50.43%  49.88%   0.55% { TdTc }
      SB     49.57%  49.02%   0.55% { 99, KTs, QJs, Ks9s, QJo, KsTh }

      against that range just ship the monies.
      calling to lure btn and shoving safe turns is fine too.

      the main point is that as long as he can have bottom set in this spot you'll always be at least ok as you have fair equity against a made straight.
      it's much easier to make a mistake there by folding than by shoving.
    • Absolutism
      Joined: 09.08.2008 Posts: 4,372
      My guess was that im around 30% equity, so its pretty close between calling or folding, but i havent checked in equilab yet:) So sick, i never would have thought that we have 50% here, even vs a lot of straights.