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[NL20-NL50] NL25sh JTs resteal QJTxx

    • member001
      Joined: 18.03.2010 Posts: 288
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      BTN: $41.64 (166.6 bb)
      Hero (SB): $27.61 (110.4 bb)
      BB: $47.15 (188.6 bb)
      UTG: $45.49 (182 bb)
      MP: $12.50 (50 bb)
      CO: $26.05 (104.2 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with J T
      3 folds, BTN raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.30, BB folds, BTN calls $1.55

      Flop: ($4.85) Q J T (2 players)
      Hero bets $3, BTN calls $3

      Turn: ($10.85) 2 (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.80, BTN calls $6.80

      River: ($24.45) 7 (2 players)
      ...checks, BTN checks

      Results: $24.45 pot ($1.10 rake)
      Final Board: Q J T 2 7
      BTN mucked A J and lost (-$12.10 net)
      Hero showed J T and won $23.35 ($11.25 net)

      Preflop: Villain initially looks tight 15/12 (75h). But, he is 0/0 from EP and MP, and 31/25 from BTN! So I think he is a very positional TAG who expects respect for his steals due to his overall tight stats. I resteal with my JTs as I expect much of his range to fold, and I have some playability if called.

      Postflop: Despite flopping 2 pair, not a great board for me. Much of his 3bet calling range already beats my bottom 2 pair or has great equity. There is no way I can give a free card, so I bet flop and turn hoping to be called by one pair plus draw hands (AQ, KQ, AJ). I would fold to a raise at any point.

      Main question here is river. Do we lead again? Villain clearly has a hand, and I just don't think we have 3 streets of value. We lose to TT+, AK, QJ, QTs (if in his range). Probably AJ, AT, 99 (if it got here) fold anyway. The only hand that will pay us off is AQ and maybe KQ. So this all argues for checking. On the other hand, the action so far looks slightly more like villain has a one pair plus draw hand (with a set or 2 pair he should have raised for protection) so we could argue for thin value. If we check, is it a crying check/fold? Villain has no bluffs imo and will check behind with one pair, so if he bets river I guess we are beaten.

  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      AK probably 3bets preflop, QQ probably 3bets preflop. I'm not sure if he 3bets JJ and TT preflop, he probably should in BU vs SB. We also block those hands with our J and T (1 combo of TT, and I think he should be 4betting JJ by default at NL25).

      So that leaves him with AQ/KQ, maybe QJs (1 combo), and QTs (1 combo). We are very far ahead of his range (12 combos of AQ, 12 combos of KQ, 3 combos of TT/QJs/QTs, 4 combos of 98s). I think we have an easy shove.