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[NL20-NL50] KQ, squeezed pot oop, tptk 3flush board

    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      I have squeezed KQ as bluff. What should I do on the postflop?
      25/19, 110h, pfr mp 30% of 20 samples, 8-table regular, no history

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($34.07)
      Hero ($60.43)
      UTG ($25.35)
      CO ($33.28)
      BTN ($24.90)

      Dealt to Hero Q:club: K:heart:

      UTG raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, fold, Hero raises to $4.25, UTG calls $3.50, fold, fold

      FLOP ($10.10) T:spade: Q:spade: 6:spade:

      Hero bets $5.50, UTG calls $5.50

      TURN ($21.10) T:spade: Q:spade: 6:spade: 5:diamond:

      Hero checks, UTG bets $8.25, Hero raises to $45, UTG calls $7.35 (AI)

      RIVER ($52.30) T:spade: Q:spade: 6:spade: 5:diamond: 7:club:
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi.

      What do u think his pf callig range is? What do u think his flop calling range is? What do u think he bets the turn with?
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      I have thought about that hand. I think ai on the turn is a huge mistake vs such bet. All draws and bluffs will push here.
      Cbet is good here for balance, I think we will meet him later many times.
      And also I know nothing about his range, so it is a huge mistake to bluff on preflop and after call play that hand as value on postflop.

      Right now the main question for me is there any difference between if I had a spade on the turn and if not.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Preflop: Your squeeze size is very big. I think his range here is strong, mostly AQ and mid pocket pairs

      Flop: If you bet here, do you think you can get value here? Are you ahead of villain's calling range? You can try using equilab to see how you are faring against a typical calling range. Maybe he calls some PPs with a spade, AQ and sets. My guess is that you are not a favourite.

      Thus I would recommend c/c instead to keep his range wider.

      Turn: I think you must decide now whether to push or fold. You are essentially committed and playability is bad on so many rivers, and it doesn't make sense to c/c the Turn and then fold on a spade when there is only 7 left in the pot and you are getting like 15% pot odds but cannot really call.

      Can we push Turn for value now? I don't think so, I even mentioned earlier that I doubt we have value on the Flop. So I would c/c F c/c T.