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[NL2-NL10] NL10 6max BU steal

    • ilioas
      Joined: 24.11.2008 Posts: 305
      PartyGaming - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BB: $10.18
      UTG: $18.02
      MP: $17.93
      CO: $17.73
      Hero (BTN): $10.00
      SB: $10.00

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has 8:heart: 6:spade:

      fold, MP calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, BB calls $0.40, MP calls $0.40, fold

      Flop: ($1.65, 3 players) 8:spade: 3:spade: 5:diamond:
      BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $1.17, BB calls $1.17, fold

      Turn: ($3.99, 2 players) 6:diamond:
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.70, BB calls $2.70

      River: ($9.39, 2 players) 7:heart:
      BB bets $5.81 and is all-in, Hero calls $5.63 and is all-in

      Both limpers are fishes that has folded to 3bets so far. So I go for steal from BTN.

      Villain in BB is a fish too that has not folded BB to steal 1 case so far.
      When checked on flop I have top pair that beats villains range vs overcards, 3x, 5x, straight draws, flush draws.

      Now at this point when reviewing the hand and his possible range, I somehow exclude all overpairs, sets and never remember about them later. (see river)

      On turn I improve my combination and now I beat nearly all holdings like straight draws, flush draws, weaker two pairs. chances that he has a straight are small imo.
      Bet sizing is standart 3/4pot

      And river is a surprize from fish.
      How to get his range at this point? How to construct my thinking so I can quickly adapt during play and derive correct range?

      At this point as for I have excluded all overcards and sets and have left 8x, two pair, flush, straight - possible are straights, 8x, two pair.

      And what possible holdings could do such a move? - really wierd nad rare AK bluff against micced flushes? Then I guess I should give the credit and fold here.
      If that could be badly slowplayed set? - I should fold here too.
      straight? with 4 unlikely, with 9 more likely - should fold here too.
      two pair? - 78, 86, 75, 56, 83 - here it might be a call.

      if villain would have checked on river - then I have value against missed fluses and 8x, two that case shoving could be fine I guess. it looses to straights and set of 77.
  • 1 reply
    • w34z3l
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,332
      Hey iloas,

      Isolating with 86o is usually going to cost you money imo. Isolating fish wide is a good strategy, but there is a point where it becomes unprofitable as a result of your hand strength. Also, as you said yourself, BB is not folding to steals, so it's not as if you ever take this down preflop.

      I like your flop bet. As you mention you don't always have the best hand, BB might hold something like 99/TT. However given that it's reasonably likely your hand is good, and also that your hand is very vulnerable, I think betting is the best option.

      Turn improves your hand and is a good spot to value bet. 79 is of course possible, but again there should be enough worse hands calling.

      River is simply an easy fold imo. Villains range? 9x. Usually not much else. It's super unlikely he's bluffing (although not impossible). Assuming villain did check your hand is too weak to extract value on 4-to-straight board and I would prefer check back.