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[NL2-NL10] nl5 9T

    • DrRaab
      DrRaab
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2011 Posts: 694
      Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      UTG+2: $13.12 (262.4 bb)
      MP1: $5.20 (104 bb)
      MP2: $2.22 (44.4 bb)
      MP3: $7.10 (142 bb)
      CO: $7.03 (140.6 bb)
      BTN: $5.92 (118.4 bb)
      SB: $5 (100 bb)
      Hero (BB): $5.44 (108.8 bb)
      UTG+1: $7.77 (155.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 T
      6 folds, BTN raises to $0.17, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.50, BTN calls $0.33

      Flop: ($1.02) T 8 Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.70, BTN raises to $1.92, Hero folds

      villain was 14/9 in 122 hands. he open on the bu with 20% of hands, so i decided to 3bet bluff. The flop came relatively good flush and gutshot, when i got raised i couldn't put him on a hand other than QQ with hindsight should i have gone with the hand and shoved? at the time i forgot the gutshot added another 6/7% in equity and gives us 57% vs 99+ AQ+
  • 4 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi DrRaab,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: I don't think you should look at 99+ and AQ+.

      You have to split his range in what hands you think he can 3-bet there with.

      I'd say that a lot of combos of KK/AA are not in his range.

      We can add some QQ, AQ, AKhh, AJhh and that's pretty much it. How do you do versus those?
    • DrRaab
      DrRaab
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2011 Posts: 694
      i put in TT-QQ AJs+ and AQo does that sound more reasonable? With that range my equity drops to roughly 40%.
      Yeah now looking at it he probably would have reraised me pre is he had KK/AA.
      His raise size looks very strong as well
    • Agent57
      Agent57
      Basic
      Joined: 28.03.2013 Posts: 5
      I can't ever see a fold here. If we ship flop and never get a fold we are risking 4.24 to win final pot of 10.88 so need 39% equity to make it breakeven.

      If villain has killer range for us of QQ,TT,88,J9s and AhJh we still have 40% equity making it a breakeven play as it is.

      Surely he will have some hands that are worse than this and if he has the occasianal flyer and folds we will have a nice +EV shove.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Agent57
      I can't ever see a fold here. If we ship flop and never get a fold we are risking 4.24 to win final pot of 10.88 so need 39% equity to make it breakeven.

      If villain has killer range for us of QQ,TT,88,J9s and AhJh we still have 40% equity making it a breakeven play as it is.

      Surely he will have some hands that are worse than this and if he has the occasianal flyer and folds we will have a nice +EV shove.
      To add to this we also have to keep in mind that despite have a +EV spot to get the money in (at worst break even) it will rarely be a very +EV spot. We will make some money with a lot of variance in the short term.