[NL2-NL10] t8s btn

    • dalmar469
      dalmar469
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2011 Posts: 394
      Party Poker $4.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 2159021
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      SB: $3.08 - VPIP: 57, PFR: 15, 3B: 5, AF: 3,4, Hands: 96
      BB: $2.22 - VPIP: 34, PFR: 13, 3B: 11, AF: 3,0, Hands: 38
      CO: $4.05 - VPIP: 35, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0,4, Hands: 144
      Hero (BTN): $5.68 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 4,1, Hands: 55388

      Pre Flop: ($0.06) Hero is BTN with 8 :club: T :club:
      CO checks, Hero raises to $0.16, 1 fold, BB calls $0.12, 1 fold

      Flop: ($0.34) 7 :club: 8 :spade: 3 :spade: (2 players)
      BB bets $0.36, Hero calls $0.36

      Turn: ($1.06) Q :club: (2 players)
      BB bets $1.00, Hero raises to $5.16, BB calls $0.70 all in

      River: ($4.46) Q :spade: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      villain is weak.
      pre: iso because of dead money.
      flop: generally I think that bad players have weak hands when they donk 2/3,3/4 or around pot size. Put him on 7x, 3x, pp, sd, fd, pair+fd and sometimes he will have stronger 8 and2 pairs.
      turn: interesting spot. Maybe he is not betting anymore with 3x,7x.
  • 5 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Dalmar,

      preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: If we are behind on the turn to a better 1p we still have 5+9 outs for a total about 28% equity. Since we almost always have no FE when we shove we roughly need 38% equity to get the money in there thus we need villain to be playing a worse hand like this. Worse hands can be other draws (like spades) or 7x or 89/86.

      Given that he is fishy and midstack and pots it I think that it's possible to play worse. I doubt that our shove will be highly +ev but I think it's the correct play.
    • dalmar469
      dalmar469
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2011 Posts: 394
      coach how do you get these 38%? Thanks
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,900
      $1.70 / ($1.06 + $1.70 + $1.70) = ~0.38
      effective stacks / final pot size

      if you aren't understanding exactly how it works don't be afraid to ask more specifically :)
    • dalmar469
      dalmar469
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2011 Posts: 394
      ok, thanks tomaloc
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by dalmar469
      coach how do you get these 38%? Thanks
      Hi Dalmar,

      Since we consider the fact that we have 0 equity that means that we will risk $1.70 to win a total pot of 4.46. So 1.7/4.46 ~38%. We'd also need to add the rake which usually adds 2-3% to the equity required.