[NL20-NL50] 88 set vs 3bet turn

    • GingerKid
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,587
      iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (SB): 103.14 BB
      BB: 39.34 BB (VPIP: 21.81, PFR: 13.60, 3Bet Preflop: 4.38, Hands: 1,665)
      UTG: 165.36 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 10.64, Hands: 250)
      CO: 210.08 BB (VPIP: 22.77, PFR: 18.67, 3Bet Preflop: 5.80, Hands: 1,541)
      BTN: 63.3 BB (VPIP: 27.34, PFR: 26.97, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 830)

      Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8:club: 8:spade:

      fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB, BB calls 2 BB

      Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) K:club: 9:diamond: 8:heart:
      Hero checks, BB checks, CO bets 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB, fold

      Turn: (21 BB, 2 players) 6:diamond:
      Hero checks, CO bets 15 BB, Hero raises to 35 BB, CO raises to 201.08 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 59.14 BB

      River: (209.28 BB, 2 players) 5:heart:

      Hero shows 8:club: 8:spade: (Three of a Kind, Eights) (Pre 67%, Flop 93%, Turn 77%)
      CO shows 5:diamond: T:diamond: (One Pair, Fives) (Pre 33%, Flop 7%, Turn 23%)
      Hero wins 203.28 BB
      CO wins 0 BB

      IS my size on dry board ok on turn? I wantet to get called ligter by his Kx, or AA on turn, so I can have comfortable shove on river, and I think if people call turn they mostly call also river since they invested half of the stack? So is it ok to raise smaller when there are no draws which are in his range?

      Also when he 3bets me it is never fold?

      What do you think about his play on turn? I am raising usually with draws as bluff so maybe he could expect FE here. Also it is strange that he opens 16% from MP and now shows T5s. Do you think it is ok to 3bet him wider when he is MP in future?
  • 2 replies
    • pokerferrer
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      Ye, it is never fold on the turn. 35-40bb is ok I think.
      What if we have here draw, and if we will miss on the river? We will have to bluff 50bb into 100bb pot, and I think we will not have enough fe. It is all because of his pretty big sizing on the turn.

      Probably he thought his hand is good enough vs BB. Or mb - his preflop stats on that table were too tight. :) Pfr is a very specific thing - I saw huge neats with pretty strange preflop hands.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      You should count yourself and see what the stack sizes look like, as well as the pot size.

      On the Turn if he calls, 70+21 = 91 bb. You will have ~55bb left. I think the Turn raise may be a little too large. You can just min-raise to 30bbb, and you will have 60bb left, pot will have 81bb. Or at least somewhere in between 30-35bb.

      Not too big of a deal though.

      Anyway when he jams here you are getting pot odds of 59/209 = 28.2%. Pretty easy call here, when you consider the fact that you beat 89s, 66, maybe K9s, 98s, some combo draws, and overpairs which may be overplayed. You have at least 40% equity here in my opinion.

      Villain's play is pretty bad unless he thinks you bluff raise the Turn really often (which I recall that you started doing more often turning some mid pairs into bluffs).

      But given the 3way dynamic I think he should just call your raise and bluff the River when checked to.