[NL2-NL10] AK aggainst probable flush NL5

    • BotiaKiraly
      Joined: 18.03.2009 Posts: 461
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 2159415
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG+2: $5.00 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 8, 3B: 5, AF: 1.2, Hands: 526

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is MP2 with K :club: A :club:
      2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.15, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.45, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.30

      Flop: ($0.97) A :diamond: 7 :club: 6 :diamond: (2 players)
      UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $0.70, UTG+2 calls $0.70

      Turn: ($2.37) 3 :diamond: (2 players)
      UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $1.13, UTG+2 raises to $2.26

      River: ($10.07) 9 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)


      So here is an interesting one:
      The guy was 8/6 at the time, so I put him on KdKh,KdKs,QdQh,QdQs,QdQc,AhKd,AsKd,AhQd,AsQd, basically all AK KK and QQ with 1 diamond.

      my equity this way is 67%, with those stats is it possible that he would call my 3bet with worse hands? If I got the range right is this a shove?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      Preflop: This guy is a nit, and he is opening a super tight range preflop. You don't have value here with AKs. I would flat here, and perhaps have 0% 3bet range here, or maybe you can 3bet some AA/KK, or maybe even just pure bluffs.

      A 12/8 player is probably opening 5% from UTG.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 51.65% 42.01% 9.64% { AKs }
      MP3 48.35% 38.72% 9.64% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

      This assumes he calls with AQ. I think a nit folds AQ here which makes you an underdog.

      The rest of the hand is irrelevant. Basically if AQ doesn't call you preflop, there is no point betting, and you won't have 3 streets of value even if you hit your Ace. I don't even think you have 2 streets of value cos he would just fold underpairs on an A/K high flop.