- 30.03.2013, 13:30
- 0
- This post has been edited 3 time(s), it was last edited by kavboj84: 30.03.2013 13:33.
Hi everyone,
Boomer and I have a little "conversation" about balancing, and I'd like to continue it here. Its not convenient to write long comments in video posts, and I think its worth to see and get other peoples involved to it, so I'd like to see your opinions and arguments as well.
The starting point is the following thought experiment :
We are on the flop before any bet happens, I (the villain) have the initiative IP and Boomer (the hero) is OOP. The flop is 222 and there are two different cases
case #1:
- Boomer donks out
case #2:
- I c-bet and Boomer x/r-s
In both cases, the pot is 9 bets big, and I have only one bet left,so I can fold, or call and go all-in . And in both cases
- Boomers range after he bet is : 6x AA, 3x KK, and 1 bluff hand which is J7o
- my range before I call is: 6x QQ and 3x JJ
Boomer says, that in case #1 when he donks I have 9:1 for calling so he has to bluff 10% of his range in order to be balanced, and thats why he has 9 value hand ( 6x AA and 3x KK) and one bluff hand (J7o), and because he bets 1 to 8 I should fold around bottom11-12% of my range, hence I fold one of the JJ-s and call with the rest. So in average I loose the 9 bets against his value range ,but in every tenth time I catch his bluff and then I win 10, resulting my EV at 0.
In case #2 he says that he should have the same bluff ratio, since my odds for calling are the same (9:1), however I should fold more,because now he bets 2 to 8.
My question is:
Why should I fold more ? If he makes the x/r with a tighter range thats ok, but compared to case#1, he has the same range, he bluffs the same amount, I have to call the same amount, and my payoff is the same. Nothing changes from my side, I have the same equity and the same risk/reward ratio. If I was able to catch his bluff 1 out of 10 in case#1, I should be able to do this again, and if this is so then my EV should be at least 0 again.
Boomer says that if I do so, Im overcalling him thus walking into his value range, but I dont really see how could I do that regarding the things I mentioned above. Nay I think he is the one who might be overbluffing,as his risk/reward ratio is worse in case#2 compared to case#1 (8:2 vs 8:1).
Im gonna just quote the relevant comments ( I hope boomer doesnt mind it):
Boomer and I have a little "conversation" about balancing, and I'd like to continue it here. Its not convenient to write long comments in video posts, and I think its worth to see and get other peoples involved to it, so I'd like to see your opinions and arguments as well.
The starting point is the following thought experiment :
We are on the flop before any bet happens, I (the villain) have the initiative IP and Boomer (the hero) is OOP. The flop is 222 and there are two different cases
case #1:
- Boomer donks out
case #2:
- I c-bet and Boomer x/r-s
In both cases, the pot is 9 bets big, and I have only one bet left,so I can fold, or call and go all-in . And in both cases
- Boomers range after he bet is : 6x AA, 3x KK, and 1 bluff hand which is J7o
- my range before I call is: 6x QQ and 3x JJ
Boomer says, that in case #1 when he donks I have 9:1 for calling so he has to bluff 10% of his range in order to be balanced, and thats why he has 9 value hand ( 6x AA and 3x KK) and one bluff hand (J7o), and because he bets 1 to 8 I should fold around bottom11-12% of my range, hence I fold one of the JJ-s and call with the rest. So in average I loose the 9 bets against his value range ,but in every tenth time I catch his bluff and then I win 10, resulting my EV at 0.
In case #2 he says that he should have the same bluff ratio, since my odds for calling are the same (9:1), however I should fold more,because now he bets 2 to 8.
My question is:
Why should I fold more ? If he makes the x/r with a tighter range thats ok, but compared to case#1, he has the same range, he bluffs the same amount, I have to call the same amount, and my payoff is the same. Nothing changes from my side, I have the same equity and the same risk/reward ratio. If I was able to catch his bluff 1 out of 10 in case#1, I should be able to do this again, and if this is so then my EV should be at least 0 again.
Boomer says that if I do so, Im overcalling him thus walking into his value range, but I dont really see how could I do that regarding the things I mentioned above. Nay I think he is the one who might be overbluffing,as his risk/reward ratio is worse in case#2 compared to case#1 (8:2 vs 8:1).
Im gonna just quote the relevant comments ( I hope boomer doesnt mind it):
Boomer2k10, 28 Mar 13 03:48
You're talking about the EV of one bet, not of the street I gain extra because you've now put 2 bets in with the worst hand on this street and not 1 When we think about the range we should be bet/folding we don't just bet and then suddently make a decision it's based on the mathematics of the hands we want to put 2 bets in with. In the example you've given you're now putting 2 bets in to see showdown and not one where you're a 90% dog. Yes the individal decision you have to make on the river is the same because you're treating is as a 1-bet problem. In your eyes facing a x/r is exactly the same as facing a donk (I'm getting 9-1) when in fact it's a totally different animal because the maths of the street play out very differently.
kavboj84, 28 Mar 13 13:14
Which two bets are these ?
A call costs only one bet and this is the only time when I put money in the pot. So how is this gonna be two ? I dont understand..
Boomer2k10, 29 Mar 13 14:48
So what is your original bet on the river, in order to get x/r'd, if not a cost to you? What you are saying is that your bet/calling range on the river (In a 6BB pot) is the same as the range you'd call a single bet with (In a 9BB pot).
kavboj84, 29 Mar 13 19:00
What river are you talking about ? I go all in on the flop with my last bet. And yeah..I think its a hilarious attempt to take previous bets into consideration to defend your argument. In which article have you seen that previous bets were taken into account when catching a bluff ? Should I add then preflop bets to the costs as well ? Cause without them theres no x/r on the flop?
Boomer2k10, 30 Mar 13 11:44
I'm using the river as an example becasue it's hyper rare to go all in on the flop so I misspoke Whatever street you are talking about you have to take that entrie street into account in order to balance your range, not just the final bet you're calling otherwise by your logic it doesn't matter how many bets do in on 1 street as long as you balance the final bet. I am not talking about previous streets I am talking about the current one. This is not a 1-bet decision, it's a street decision Your goal is to make me indifferent to bluffing, I need a x/r bluff to suceed 23% of the time to breakeven, so fold 23% of the time, ergo bluff EV neutral. My 10% range also makes you indifferent to calling down becasue you're getting 9-1 and will win 10% of the time with a bluff-catcher. In logical terms, how can a range which calls over twice as much as it "should", by your own fold equity laws, be good against a range which is 90% value? How can a bet/call range in a 6BB pot be the same at a call of a single bet in a 9BB pot? When the "bluffer" is risking more why should we call with the same range as when he's only risking half as much in a bigger pot? After 12 back and forth's however I am not going to go on with this: If you want an explanation as to why we construct ranges based on our opponent's payoff/bluffing odds I recommend reading The Intelligent Poker Player by Phil Newall (Specifically the chapter on Game Theory, Page 390 onwards)
kavboj84, 30 Mar 13 14:31
If I have to take two bets into account by making that call(so the entire street) that means I have to consider this when risking the very first bet before the x/r. This is due to the fact that you cant take back money from the pot, if that bet is in it is lost anyway even if I bet/fold. So as I understand practically my c-bet range (as well as my c-bet/3bet/fold and my c-bet/3bet/call) should not only be balanced against your calling range but all your possible ranges on the entire street up to your x/r/caping range. Now this is the most weird thing I ever heard from you. I haven never seen any calculation following this logic from you in any of your videos that I have seen, and you are not following it even in your previous post, because you say that my odds are 9:1, tho you should say that my odds are 9:2 cause you should count two bets for the bluffcatch. You doesnt even seem to be consequent with yourself. And I have not read P.N-s book,but I would be seriously surprised if he claimed anything like this. Altough everything could be possible until there is a clear proof, so I dont say that it isnt so its just very unlikely based on what I have read about poker.