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[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH T8s 3bet pot deeper analysis

    • NightShadePMC
      Joined: 16.11.2010 Posts: 800
      Hey guys, inspired by mbml's vid on analysis, decided to analyse deeper this one hand I am not sure about.

      IPoker, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BB): $19.60 (98 bb)
      UTG: $53.04 (265.2 bb)
      MP: $20.40 (102 bb)
      CO: $34.99 (175 bb)
      BTN: $14 (70 bb)
      SB: $8 (40 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 8 T
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.60, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2, CO calls $1.40

      Flop: ($4.10) 5 T 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.60, CO calls $2.60

      Turn: ($9.30) 2 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $4.80, Hero calls $4.80

      River: ($18.90) K (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $10.20, Hero ?

      Villain is 25/21 in 276h
      > 35 CO open, 27 fold to 3bet (11h)-calls 73, 2.2 AF, 57% fold to cBet, 17 WTSD

      Pre I 3bet, although maybe I should flat and 3bet more depolarised? I didn't see his fold to 3bet.

      When he calls pre, he could have lots of hands - I give him something like 77+, some suited connecters, Broadways suited and off, some suited Aces.

      Flop: In retrospect, I should have bet more to protect vs his floats? something like $2.80-3? At first I thought that it is ok to bet less to induce light floats. But now I don't think it is so good since his floats do have decent equity against us, so I would rather bet more and protect.

      Turn: When he calls flop, I want to pot control, and check since few weaker hands call, giving them (floats) the chance of betting. I expect many medium strength hands to check back, like QT, 99, 88, so I discount them from his range. When he bets, he polarises his range a bit. Also, by his betsizing, he is rather weak, looking like a float trying to make me fold some weakish hands.

      at this point I give him about this range

      Board: 5:spade: T:diamond: 7:diamond:  2:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    57.44%  57.44%   0.00% { Ts8s }
      MP3    42.56%  42.56%   0.00% { QQ-JJ, 77, ThTc, AdQd, AsQs, KdQd, KsQs, AdJd, AsJs, KdJd, KsJs, QdJd, QsJs, AhTh, AcTc, KhTh, KcTc, JhTh, JcTc, Ad9d, Jd9d, Th9h, Tc9c, 9h8h, 9s8s, 9c8c, AdKh, AdKs, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AhQd, AsQd, AcQd, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AhJd, AsJd, AcJd, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQd, KsQd, KcQd, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc, KhJd, KsJd, KcJd, QdJh, QdJs, QdJc, QhJd, QsJd, QcJd }

      So I am getting a good price. Am I being too optimistic with this range of his?

      River: It's the Ks, I check again, giving him a chance to bluff once again using this scarecard for more fold equity. The thing is, when he bets, putting me all-in, he is representing a quite narrow value range. I don't see JJ, QQ betting here very often, neither AT.

      His river aggression is 40 (15h) so we can include some bluffs in his range. Given that all draws miss and K is a scarecard.

      Board: 5:spade: T:diamond: 7:diamond:  2:club:  K:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    38.71%  38.71%   0.00% { Ts8s }
      MP3    61.29%  61.29%   0.00% { 77, ThTc, AdQd, KdQd, KsQs, AdJd, KdJd, KsJs, QdJd, KhTh, KcTc, Jd9d, 9h8h, 9s8s, 9c8c, AdKh, AdKs, AhQd, AsQd, AcQd, AhJd, AsJd, AcJd, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQd, KsQd, KcQd, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc, KhJd, KsJd, KcJd }

      This is the final range I give him on the river, I tried not to give him a whole lot of bluffs and keep it somewhat realistic.

      So I have 38% equity and am getting 26% pot odds. According to my analysis, this should be a call. What do you think about the hand and my thought process?
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Preflop: If villain is not folding much to 3bets then flatting here makes more sense. I usually flat here anyway, I think T8s plays fairly well vs a CO opening range from the BB.

      Flop: Cbet seems fine, maybe you could go slightly smaller but I think it's ok.

      Turn: Check now to bluff catch vs floats from straight draws, Ace highs and King highs and flush draws

      River: Now his betting range is going to be really narrow. I don't think he continues betting QT T9 JT AT, so his range is very constrained to some KQ KJ floats, KdXd, and sets. I think the River card makes this an easy call IMO, cos he will not value bet as thinly with his not so strong made hands.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      I think the ranges you posted are kind of reasonable, though a little optimistic. Given that he opens fairly wide and folds so little to 3bets (which is why you shouldn't 3bet T8s when you get called by all broadways), I agree that he can show up with KJo/ATo/QJo type of hands here.

      However, his fold to cbet on the Flop is 57%. IMO such a player is not floating so many King highs and Queen highs on this flop. Players with 35-40% fold to F cbets are likelier to make such plays. Could be a sample issue, but still I rather use a small sample than no sample.

      On the Turn I think your equity should be closer to 45-50% and not 57% which is way too high IMO. But I think you gave him too many thin value bets. I would think that T9 JT and maybe QT will often check back on the Turn for pot control and avoid facing a Turn checkraise. Also, as mentioned before you added way too many KQ KJ QJ type of hands here.