[NL20-NL50] [sh] nl 50 x/r turn and shoved on the river

    • DeMarcohsp
      DeMarcohsp
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 1,975
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $18.49 (37 bb)
      BB: $48.68 (97.4 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $50.75 (101.5 bb)
      MP: $85.08 (170.2 bb)
      CO: $25.27 (50.5 bb)
      BTN: $51.97 (103.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with T T
      Hero raises to $1.50, 4 folds, BB calls $1

      Flop: ($3.25) 9 4 3 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.48, BB calls $2.48

      Turn: ($8.21) 5 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $5.75, BB raises to $12.50, Hero calls $6.75

      River: ($33.21) 2 (2 players)
      BB bets $32.20, Hero folds





      He has a T x/r of 29 over 34 sample. If the straight would have not completed I thin I would've called him on most river cards
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi,

      I don't think this is a good spot to call him at all.

      1) You are close to the bottom of your range. If you don't fold this you are not folding anything
      2) The turn is an extremely ugly card. Look at the number of value combos you now lose to.
      -12 combos of sets
      -8 combos of straights (67s, A2s)

      That's 20 combos which is a lot.

      What I would do is to call here with the upper end of my range if you want to bluff catch vs this guy (AA/KK/QQ) and fold everything worse.
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      Originally posted by mbml
      What I would do is to call here with the upper end of my range if you want to bluff catch vs this guy (AA/KK/QQ) and fold everything worse.

      Is there any difference on turn if you call it with AA or 88 or even AK? If he value raises we loose with 88 and QQ+ in the same way with only 2 outs, and if he bluff raises with overcards e.g we are anyway ahead of it with 88 and QQ+ (except that he has 6 outs on river which he probably doesnt bet when hits). He could also raise iwth 56s, and again 88 and AA are both ahead.

      So I think it is not a huge difference.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Firstly, AA has gutshot outs

      Secondly, your point about the 6 overs is true (that he probably doesn't value bet when he hits). But the difference it makes is much larger than you think. In fact why don't you count your equity on the Turn with 88 vs AA vs a range of some semi bluffs and all the monsters.