[NL2-NL10] CAP Weak fold river

    • Stedyeddy
      Stedyeddy
      Black
      Joined: 28.02.2011 Posts: 7,497
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($35.75)
      BB ($18.91)
      Hero ($29.43)
      CO ($9.43)
      BTN ($10)

      Dealt to Hero 8:heart: 8:club:

      Hero raises to $1.11, CO calls $1.11, fold, SB calls $0.86, BB calls $0.61

      FLOP ($4.44) 5:club: 7:diamond: K:diamond:

      SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks

      TURN ($4.44) 5:club: 7:diamond: K:diamond: 2:club:

      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2, CO folds, SB calls $2, BB folds

      RIVER ($8.44) 5:club: 7:diamond: K:diamond: 2:club: 8:diamond:

      SB bets $6.89, Hero folds

      SB wins $8.06

      Oponent

      44/22
      IN 100 hands
      AF 4.3

      I think a lot of call or fold in river.
      I have to win 1/3 times to make a EV+ call, but what kind of range could check flop, check/c turn and donk the river?

      The pot is multi way, so the % of bluffes is less than a normal pot, and hands like K8, 57 or 85 its a small %, and im not sure if he donk AI river.
      Maby its a weak fold, but I think that most of times he have a FD or a random OESD.
  • 2 replies
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      Any information about the other players? Betting the turn is close here, since someone could easily have a weak K here that isn't folding, plus most of the rivers would be bad for us.

      As played, I think folding the river is standard. I think that when he takes this line this is usually a flush here, and I doubt that he has enough K8/87 combos to justify a call here.

      Best,
      Plamen
    • Stedyeddy
      Stedyeddy
      Black
      Joined: 28.02.2011 Posts: 7,497
      Good.

      Ty for the evaluation.