[NL20-NL50] J-high flush vs fish, bluffcall?

    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      Also unknown fish 41/17, 60 hands, AF 1.7.
      Before he barreled with 3/4 pot-bets 3 streets, so I thought it was his standart sizing.

      Right know I don't like my sizing postflop, should have beted more flop and turn.

      Do we have call on the river?

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($25)
      BB ($19.30)
      UTG ($25.35)
      CO ($39.69)
      Hero ($25)

      Dealt to Hero J:heart: J:club:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.62, fold, BB calls $0.37

      FLOP ($1.34) 4:heart: 5:heart: Q:club:

      BB checks, Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.75

      TURN ($2.84) 4:heart: 5:heart: Q:club: Q:heart:

      BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, BB calls $1.75

      RIVER ($6.34) 4:heart: 5:heart: Q:club: Q:heart: 2:heart:

      BB bets $4.25, Hero calls $4.25 ??
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Flop: I would prefer checking back here unless we think this guy is a huge station. I don't see ourselves getting >2 streets of value, and I think the best way to make him make as many mistakes as possible is to check back the Flop and underrepresent our hand.

      As played

      Turn: Turn bet is really thin, I think we may be value cutting ourselves. Once again, I don't see ourselves getting 3 streets of value, and also it's not as though there are a ton of draws out there which can call us on the Turn. On average I don't think we are necessarily a favourite on the Turn vs a Turn calling range, there's a good chance we are an underdog.

      River: I don't feel like folding here, but at the same time you shouldn't have gotten yourself into this spot, you should have just checked the turn. What does his range look like on the Turn? Maybe he somehow has AhX or KhX. Maybe he randomly bets 8h8x here, maybe he randomly bets with QX, maybe he does it with a full house.

      It's a little hard to say what he's capable of. AF is 1.7 which isn't that low, but is a little on the passive side.
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      Hey, thank you. Actually I usually bet paired turns vs fishes in same situations, because I think they are less likely to have top pair after flop, so their hands either draws or weak showdown value, which are probably still able to call turn bet.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      well in this case

      1) there aren't that many straight draws, the 2 low cards are pretty low, and people play mid cards way more often than low cards in general, so he will have fewer combos of straight draws

      2) The flush completes. This makes him less likely to call again with a straight draw on paired + flush Turn. same is true for 2nd pair.