[NL2-NL10] NL 10 AQo, preflop, flop ,turn ?

    • staselu
      Joined: 02.01.2008 Posts: 532
      IPoker, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (SB): $10.62 (106.2 bb)
      BB: $10.10 (101 bb)
      UTG: $29.22 (292.2 bb)
      MP: $12.34 (123.4 bb)
      CO: $9.85 (98.5 bb)
      BTN: $13.04 (130.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A Q
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, BTN folds, Hero raises to $1, BB folds, CO calls $0.70

      Flop: ($2.10) T 4 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.05, CO calls $1.05

      Turn: ($4.20) A (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40

      River: ($7) Q (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      CO 18/12
      steal CO 18%
      fold to 3bet 38%
      4bet range 0% (8 samples)
      vs resteal fold 20 % (5 samples)
      agg% 37%
      fold to cbet 3bet pot 67%
      hands 380

      BВ fish 42/0
      agg % 10%
      wts 50
      hands 44


      CO is stealing with 18% range and does not like to fold to 3bets, BU is a fish who likes to call. I think it is better to 3bet because even against his calling 3bet range we are ahead
      18% * 0.2 = 3.6 {JJ-TT,AQs-ATs,KQs,AQo-AJo}

      MP2 43.13% 30.13% 13.00% JJ-TT, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo-AJo
      MP3 56.87% 43.87% 13.00% AQo

      I do not mind if the fish will call the 3bet as well, I will have a strong hand i a 3bet pot

      he calls the flop cbet with JJ,AhQh,KhQh,AhJh,AhTh


      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 67.71% 64.01% 3.70% JJ, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, AhTh
      MP3 32.29% 28.59% 3.70% AdQc

      vs that range I have 32% equity

      to value bet profitably I need more than 50 %, I think the opponent will not bet JJ, he will only bet
      AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, AhTh

      Board: T:heart: 4:diamond: 3:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    54.04%  42.93%  11.11% { AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, AhTh }
      MP3    45.96%  34.85%  11.11% { AdQc }

      based on my analysis I need to fold turn

      Is my analysis of this spot Ok ?
  • 1 reply
    • w34z3l
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,330
      Hey Staselu,

      Preflop maths is not correct. If villain has Ftsteal of 20% that means he continues with 80% of his 18% range. That makes the calculation for his total range -----> 18 * 0.8

      I think flatting preflop is fine, it keeps the pot small where you don't have a huge equity edge and encourages the fish to tag along. This is my preferred option, but theoretically the preflop numbers allow you to 3bet here for value.

      Postflop play looks good. Villain is folding enough that a cbet will be profitable as a semi-bluff. I think turn check is very good and usually the strongest play. Turn check/call is fine - you may even be able to raise vs such a small bet.

      River is fine. Whether I'd check/fold or not will probably depend on timing + betsize