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[NL20-NL50] JJ, 3way vs donk fish, ip

    • pokerferrer
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      BB is a fish: 30/10, 20 hands, AF 0.3. It is his first donkbet of 4 samples. He had fold to cbet 0 of 3 also.
      BTN is a reg.

      Hello, what do you think about my line? What about betsizing especially on the turn?
      What if he check-raises on the turn - is it an easy fold for us?

      I think his range on the river is most of the time busted draw with a pair. Can we find here a valuebet? I know nothing about his real wts, but he had 4 of 4 which is equal 100% counting this hand.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($35.75)
      BB ($25)
      UTG ($38.68)
      Hero ($27.58)
      CO ($40.29)
      BTN ($25.78)

      Dealt to Hero J:diamond: J:heart:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.75, fold, BTN calls $0.75, fold, BB calls $0.50

      FLOP ($2.35) 9:heart: 6:diamond: 8:club:

      BB bets $1.50, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN folds, BB calls $2

      TURN ($9.35) 9:heart: 6:diamond: 8:club: Q:club:

      BB checks, Hero bets $5.75, BB calls $5.75

      RIVER ($20.85) 9:heart: 6:diamond: 8:club: Q:club: 3:club:

      BB checks, Hero checks ??
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      As a general rule of thumb, I would not raise with the intention of folding. But I think the best line here is to raise/fold Flop and bet/fold on Turn and River. This guy is weak and passive in general. I expect him to bet/call with a ton of worse hands, while only 3betting your raise with hands that have JJ crushed.

      Flop: raise larger, to 4

      Turn: I think you can go slightly larger to 2/3 pot. Queen is not a good card for us, as villain can have JT/QT/QJ, however I just think villain has many pair + draw here like 97 87 67 T9 T8.

      River: This is close. On one hand I want to value bet thinly cos he's a donk. On the other hand the river gives him more value hands now. I am also not too sure whether he continues calling 8X here on the River. WTSD would help - With a high WTSD of 35%+ this would definitely be a bet.

      Without reads I think you can try going for thin value by betting 1/3 pot on the River. But it's close, don't think checking is that much worse. I would expect us to get called by worse hands around 45-60% of the time on the River.