Am I a fish or is this variance?

    • boozaf
      boozaf
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2009 Posts: 140
      Hi everyone

      I'll cut to the chase:

      I've been playing for a while at NL10 and would like to know if this is a sign of variance or if this is a sign that I am a fish. ?(

      On NL10 (6 max) my amount won is -$142,18 and my All-In Equity is +$20,91 (30000 hands).

      On NL10 (FR) my amount won is -$131,09 and my All-In Equity is +$2,07 (50000 hands).

      All in all, I've played close to 80000 hands and lost $273,27.

      I switched from short-handed to FR to escape the variance and it seems that though I am kinda escaping, it's still dogging me. =/

      Is that possible or am I playing that bad?

      P.S.: Last four times I went all-in pf w/ AA I've lost to: QJs, QTo, J7o and 55. ;(

      P.S.S.: On my previous limit the values were: $83,83 won and $82,45 All-In Equity.
  • 8 replies
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      it is possible
    • VorpalF2F
      VorpalF2F
      Super Moderator
      Super Moderator
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 8,904
      Hi, boozaf,
      First off, 30K hands isn't a lot.

      But it is enough that you should look at your game before blaming luck.
      Remember that "variance" represents the spread of the results around an expected winrate.

      After 30K hands you have an average winrate of about -9 bb / 100

      I suggest looking at the following areas of your game in this priority order:
        Mental game. You should aim to be calm, relaxed and rational while playing. If you're not, work on this first. Your mental game is the foundation on which everything is built. From my own experience I cannot even begin to learn if my mental game is out of whack.
        Position. Check your stats by position. You should be raising most from the button, and your pfr should decrease steadily to UTG. Your winrate likely will follow the same pattern. If not, study and fix it.
        Aggression. check your aggression factor. I'm told that it should be around 2. In other words, you raise about twice as often as you call post flop. My own rather limited experience shows that on days when I'm passively calling, or being super aggro, I don't do nearly as well as when it is around 2.

      Finally,
      Watch pleno's coaching session tomorrow to see how it is done.
      This more than anything helped my NLHE game.

      I'm nowhere near as good as that, and I'm working on smaller limits than he is, but since I've been more aggressive in position, I've been winning more.

      One last thought:
      You mention FR vs 6 Max.
      I don't play FR any more. As I see it, the only difference is you have 3 positions where you can only raise w/ the very best, and everyone knows it, so they either 3Bet you w/ hands that beat you or fold. After nearly 100K hands of FR I found that my stats showed those 3 places simply weren't worth playing. I lost big pots or won small ones.

      I'm going to get roasted for that opinion, I'm sure, but for me it just makes sense.

      All the best,
      --VS
    • boozaf
      boozaf
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2009 Posts: 140
      I am definitely NOT blaming luck. Since I play this game for not that long, I'm just wondering if something like that is possible.

      I don't know about the credibility of LeakTracker but when I run it I'm spot on at EVERY stat from every position.

      Also as I said, my All-In Equity allegedly means that given a coin flip, I've been losing almost always at every situation (not only coin flips but mainly when I am the favorite).

      Please correct me if I'm wrong

      Thanks ; )
    • ProfitsofDoom
      ProfitsofDoom
      Basic
      Joined: 29.08.2012 Posts: 177
      It is defnitely possible you are running bad, but chances are you have some leaks. Most players, even good ones usually have a couple at least.

      I think i tried Leaktracker when PT4 first came out. At the time it wasn't very detailed. I ended up buying Leakbuster , and it definitely goes more in depth, has written and video content, and a lot of advanced filters, etc.
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,858
      i'm also not a huge fan of leaktracker, don't think the format is very interesting "this value is ok, this one might not be" and it's just meh overall.
      i like pokertracker a lot, but the holdem manager default filters are WAY more useful.

      also this makes me smile :D
    • patszerdonk
      patszerdonk
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.05.2011 Posts: 834
      Originally posted by boozaf

      Also as I said, my All-In Equity allegedly means that given a coin flip, I've been losing almost always at every situation (not only coin flips but mainly when I am the favorite).

      Please correct me if I'm wrong

      Thanks ; )
      Basically you are right. But you should know that AIE doesn't count on weak spot on your game, rake, etc. So it doesn't a good tool to use.

      Don't worry your AIE graph and winning line will kiss each other at 1M hands (or at least will be very close).

      Good Luck
    • JCSeerup
      JCSeerup
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 1,039
      Originally posted by VorpalF2F
      One last thought:
      You mention FR vs 6 Max.
      I don't play FR any more. As I see it, the only difference is you have 3 positions where you can only raise w/ the very best, and everyone knows it, so they either 3Bet you w/ hands that beat you or fold. After nearly 100K hands of FR I found that my stats showed those 3 places simply weren't worth playing. I lost big pots or won small ones.

      I'm going to get roasted for that opinion, I'm sure, but for me it just makes sense.

      All the best,
      --VS
      I'm not gonna argue against what you say, since it's true that you have to be tight in EP in FR games, but I still think you can be very profitable in those positions if you just play correct ranges and play solid.

      About what game is preferable I think it's up to the player to decide what game he prefers and that will usually also be the game he will be most profitable in.

      So I agree with your points, but I just don't think it's fair to say one game is better than the other.

      And to OP, running 30 bi's below EV sucks but it's definitely possible. You should check this thread Determine if you are a fish or if you run bad even though it's obv that you run bad in AI EV you might have some leaks that can be fixed and help you win ;)
    • boozaf
      boozaf
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2009 Posts: 140
      Thank you guys ALL for your answers. :D

      As someone pointed out that I must have some leaks, that's exactly how my thought process went as I was trying to figure it out what could be happening/ways to improve: "Well... since my all-in equity is good, let's try and find out other ways to make money apart from the times I go all-in."

      And so I did (or so I think I did).

      About the graphs, my graph is standard, saw many great players with similar patterns (apart from the fact that they had closer all-in equity and money won).
      Still in this subject, I wondered that one of the reasons my red line (wons without showdown) was going down might have been because I wasn't bluffing or semi-bluffing enough. So I corrected that and now the line doesn't go down anymore, it has flattened.

      Apart from that, I HONESTLY feel I'm not having any major trouble at this limit in regards to assessing ranges, steals, bluffs, etc.

      P.S.: I almost feel like posting all the last... I don't know, ten, fifteen times I went all-in pf w/AA or KK vs guys w/4-8 4B ranges. It's ridiculous. ;(

      P.S.S.: I filterd my graphs as it says in the post about 'How to know if you're a fish or running bad' and everything's like it should: all flowing upwards. o.o