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[NL20-NL50] A one pair monotone board

    • daisuke3823
      daisuke3823
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,321
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      ハンドをプレーする

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Known players:
      CO:
      $32.33
      BU:
      $25.00
      SB:
      $26.23
      BB (Hero):
      $25.00
      MP2:
      $20.57
      MP3:
      $14.49

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A, Q.
      4 folds, SB calls $0.15, Hero raises to $0.80, SB calls $0.55.

      Flop: ($1.6) A, K, 7 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.10, SB calls $1.10.

      Turn: ($3.8) 5 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $2.90, SB calls $2.90.

      River: ($9.6) J (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks.

      Final Pot: $9.6.

      52 hands vpip45 pfr33 wtsd26


      should I bet on the river?
      but AJ 2 pair is possible and I dont think I can get much value from worse hands
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi.

      I think river is close. I actually think a small value bet could be reasonable. 4$ is fine here. Don't forget he limps in the SB and my guess is that AK/AJ/KJ/AA/KK aren't too likely to be in his range. So we mainly lose to 77 and sets, maybe A5/A7 and flushes. We are ahead of other AX which I feel is a larger part of his range and if we bet small he probably never folds.

      We beat A2/A3/A4/A6/A8/A9/AT
      We lose to A5/A7, AJ/JJ/AA/KK/AK/KJ (heavily discounted cos he often raises preflop), 77/55, flushes

      This makes this decision much closer. I would prefer value betting the River if the 5 or 7 paired, then we would win more AX combos and villain would have fewer 2pair combos. So maybe a check here on this texture makes more sense.

      Thanks.