[NL2-NL10] set of 5s NL10

    • BotiaKiraly
      BotiaKiraly
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.03.2009 Posts: 461
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 2165333
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $10.61 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 7, 3B: 4, AF: 0.0, Hands: 88
      Hero (UTG): $10.00 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 12, 3B: 4, AF: 4.1, Hands: 51139
      UTG+1: $4.37 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 16, 3B: 3, AF: 3.8, Hands: 232
      UTG+2: $11.20 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 1.8, Hands: 88
      MP1: $9.25 - VPIP: 35, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 0.8, Hands: 34
      MP2: $10.76 - VPIP: 10, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 148
      CO: $10.00 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 9, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 80
      BTN: $8.00 - VPIP: 40, PFR: 4, 3B: 0, AF: 1.3, Hands: 45
      SB: $10.00 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 7, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 27

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with 5 :heart: 5 :diamond:
      Hero raises to $0.35, 6 folds, SB calls $0.30, 1 fold

      Flop: ($0.80) T :diamond: 8 :club: Q :heart: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.45, SB calls $0.45

      Turn: ($1.70) 2 :spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($1.70) 5 :spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $1.30, Hero raises to $3, SB raises to $9.20


      Hi,

      His line is exactly how someone would have slowplayed a set, but if I add AQ then I'm ahead with 66% equity. Is there any way he would jam it with AQ on the river? Can you let go of a set in this situation?
  • 5 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      I think his range is more than just sets, it would include 2 pair and sometimes overplayed overpair. Of course he could also have 9J for the straight.

      Against that range I think we can call it off.
    • BotiaKiraly
      BotiaKiraly
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.03.2009 Posts: 461
      he seems to be a tighter player, do you think he would call an utg raise from the sb with a QT, or a 9J? I don't think so. I called his shove, but I'm still not sure if it was the right decision
    • BotiaKiraly
      BotiaKiraly
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.03.2009 Posts: 461
      just found out about the advise the judge to take another look button :p
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      Originally posted by BotiaKiraly
      he seems to be a tighter player, do you think he would call an utg raise from the sb with a QT, or a 9J? I don't think so. I called his shove, but I'm still not sure if it was the right decision
      Defiantly no he won't.

      Pre flop it's something like this:
      JJ-22,AJs+,KQs,AJo+ 53.49%
      5h5d - 46.51%

      From his 8.45% range on flop he would most likely call with this since we did open from UTG and should be considered strong: TT,88,AQs,KQs,AQo (2.4/8.45) so cb is fine.

      My river line would be: raise/ fold

      1) we don't have that much info that we can assume he would make such a big bluff (only 27 hands)
      2) With his Qx hands he would just call (since he is in the spot where he can only beat bluff)
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      actually sausage is right, i dont think hes calling so wide on the SB, so his range is pretty tight would be like that sausage described.

      on the river raise now it appears like a nutted hand, more like TT 88 QQ, with Qx he would usually call.

      i correct my analysis, SB usually has a super strong range on the river when he raises and is usually better sets and we can fold.