Stats+Graph of a loosing player

    • tomzyb
      tomzyb
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2007 Posts: 623
      So for all NL players, who usually try to get smart, and then after 10 posts they figure out the thread is not NL, please don't look at this, because this is my FL 1/2 graph and stats.






      So after nearly 20k hands on 1/2, i am descovering poker is really not that much about statistics, looks more like pure luck. From peak to peak it's a bit less than 400 BB. It's quite obvious i don't beat the games with the knowlege i am getting here and try to apply in my game.

      I admit i can't take this anymore. I loose all big pots, only win small ones. If i have very good hand or a monster it either gets no action or gets drawn out by the river. 2,3 and 4 outers were allways huge favourites on me last 20k hands.

      Please no suggestions like: take a break, read articles, bla bla bla...done it all, multiple times.

      So i have decided for 2 possible decisions in the future:

      - cash out right away and quit this madness once an for all till i have some money left

      - wait till i hit 1000$ (have to loose another 400$) and quit then or quit after the end of August if i don't break even on 1/2.
  • 20 replies
    • Dippy19
      Dippy19
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2007 Posts: 1,346
      This looks even uglier than my first jump to 1/2... Lost 400$ over 11K hands, so pretty much the same thing actually.

      Khm... Well reading articles helped me :P Maybe try to make a video?

      Otherwise, try to read hands a lot and categorizers players(maniacs, calling stations, LAGs...) and play accordingly. Helps a lot if you focus more on it.

      Well good luck, hope it goes better for ya :)
    • Yoghi
      Yoghi
      Black
      Joined: 10.09.2007 Posts: 14,387
      You seem to play too tight, both preflop and postflop. Do you use the approx charts?

      Making a video would be very nice, it shows how you play in a very clear way, it helps a lot.
    • tomzyb
      tomzyb
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2007 Posts: 623
      Dippy: 700$ is allmost 2x 400$, so not pretty much the same, 20k downswing allso quite more than 11k, so allso not tpretty much the same.

      Yoghi: it's quite not hard to believe that 52s is not a hand to defend BB from the SB raiser when you are getting beat with a lot better hands, or raising from SB with T6o when you loose 2/3 of QQ for 20k hands in a row. And i am glad my WTSD is not higher because i made a lot and i mean a lot hard good laydowns in multyway pots when getting drawn out, i think i saved at least 50 BB.
    • tomzyb
      tomzyb
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2007 Posts: 623
      And Dippy: I try to read hands and categorise opponents...but how does that help me when i raise the turn maniac with TPTK in HU, and he 3-bets me with gutshot, and hit straight on the river (looks like the most sucesfull play against me in last few sessions). I mean...how do you figure out what opponent is doing if he doesn't know it himself?
      And trying to figure out hands ussually works with good players, worse ones can have anything. But i don't want to play good players, right?
    • Dippy19
      Dippy19
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2007 Posts: 1,346
      Originally posted by tomzyb
      Dippy: 700$ is allmost 2x 400$, so not pretty much the same, 20k downswing allso quite more than 11k, so allso not tpretty much the same.
      If I would play 20K hands it would also be 700$-800$, that's what I meant.
    • Dippy19
      Dippy19
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2007 Posts: 1,346
      Originally posted by tomzyb
      And Dippy: I try to read hands and categorise opponents...but how does that help me when i raise the turn maniac with TPTK in HU, and he 3-bets me with gutshot, and hit straight on the river (looks like the most sucesfull play against me in last few sessions). I mean...how do you figure out what opponent is doing if he doesn't know it himself?
      And trying to figure out hands ussually works with good players, worse ones can have anything. But i don't want to play good players, right?
      Make notes and try to adapt. That gut shoot example is bad luck, happens... But you are steadily dropping, sooo you are doing something wrong imo... Making a vid is the best idea if you ask me.
    • Yoghi
      Yoghi
      Black
      Joined: 10.09.2007 Posts: 14,387
      This is probably not just a downswing. I'm just saying what I think from viewing your stats. 21/15.5 is definitely too tight, you don't play hands like J5o because they are good, you play them for fold equity. Also results from the past are no guarantee for the future. With this WTS you don't always make good folds, in my opinion you fold too much. In headsup you can call down with more hands than you think most of the time.

      But if you make a video it can be reviewed and we can see your leaks, or if you just have a downswing. Stats are only numbers, a video shows how you play.
    • tomzyb
      tomzyb
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2007 Posts: 623
      Well you have to admit running 47W@SD for 20k hands with my VPIP and WTSD is quite a bad run...Howewer it does afcourse affect my play (i am tightening up too much), so thats why i decided for option nr.3 :D :

      Pulling the brakes and going back to 0.5/1 where i plan to stay for a while, strenghten my play and get a bit more loosenes back. Probably will be cashing out most of the money i will make there, because atm i still have sufficient bankroll to play 1/2. And than after many many hands and in case of good results and confidence move up again.
    • Foxxxen
      Foxxxen
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2007 Posts: 3,428
      Hi tomzyb!

      Sad to see your graph, but know that you are not alone, mine is almost identical to yours :(

      Could you try this one thing though: Filter in your elephant by the exact number of players respectively: 6,5,4,3 and compare the winrates to each other.

      I find that I am actually a decent winner at 6 players exactly, but as the number of players drop, my winrate goes into the negative. I do not know why this occurs though, but probably failing to adjust properly (though the charts should be the same), maybe somebody wiser than me has a thought? :)

      Another advice is to study the psychology and didactics articles, if you have not done so already. It is very important that you devote enough time to learn how to learn, so to speak.

      Hope this helps,

      //Fox
    • Dippy19
      Dippy19
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2007 Posts: 1,346
      Originally posted by tomzyb
      Pulling the brakes and going back to 0.5/1 where i plan to stay for a while, strenghten my play and get a bit more loosenes back. Probably will be cashing out most of the money i will make there, because atm i still have sufficient bankroll to play 1/2. And than after many many hands and in case of good results and confidence move up again.
      Sounds familiar :D :D :D Dippy's blog/thread thingy
    • tomzyb
      tomzyb
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2007 Posts: 623
      Well well, as soon as i move down, i hit an upswing afcourse :evil: . +130BB in first 2k hands back on 0.5/1. Gotta hate PokerStars. At least their support is nice and fast :tongue:

      But i am not going back up, no way! I want it to be easy to play, so i have to learn to play better if i want it to be easy on 1/2.
      Just decided to make some money and cash it out on 0.5/1 while learning the game, so i will feel better about myself next time i go up again.
      Allso tryed to play some 210FPP SNGs to get it a bit mixed, not just FL all the time, get ITM 6 out of 15 times so it allso pays off. It's such a good rush for the first few turnaments pushing all-in and waiting for the board, but then i get bored :O

      Anyways i am still stuck few dollars for this month, but i hope i get a few hundred till the end of the month.
    • One12ver
      One12ver
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.05.2008 Posts: 249
      I feel the same as you do. I play FL.50-1. and in the last month caught a really shit run and still going. I have moved down as low as .10-.20 just so I can limit my losses till the streak ends. Its amazing the shit people play and then win with! Had my 3 of kind A,s busted by a guy who calls 2 raises preflop, my raise on the flop,my bet turn, checks and calls my bet on the river with 97o because on the river he caught a flush with his 9 of spades.
      Sometimes I think we players that take our game seriously and study poker are being played by the "call and raise anything in any position and hope for the best" players. I would love to know what the odds are for making money at a FR FL table when 7-8 of the players play this way? I was so close to making gold level last month, now I have lost money and new strategy articals. Anyways what I have learnt is that these streaks will come and go but not to take them personaly and laugh at the "river rats" and their unusual play. Hopefully in the future they will write a book and have a great web site like PokerStrategy so we too can learn this great style of playing, but I think none of them will ever win enough to in poker to do this.
    • tomzyb
      tomzyb
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2007 Posts: 623
      Hmm i love it when i have 2 or more very loose-pasive players at my table. I think that was allso problem with 1/2 SH, in comparison with 0.5/1 there are a lot less loose-pasives, but instead a lot more maniacs, and hell they got numerous mirracle runners against my great hands which allways made me loose big pots. And on the other hand, they all folded flop or even preflop when i had good hands, so i really didn't get a chance to win any real pot.
      Back here on 0.5/1 you just bet every street and get called down with crap, the game goes like u want it to go, and at least you don't loose any aditional bets when they get lucky against you because they are so passive.
    • One12ver
      One12ver
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.05.2008 Posts: 249
      Passive"ness"? is a common in most low limit FL games, but for some reason I have hit the Aggresive/manic week or month. I have never seen this kind of "raising with nothing" on almost every hand by 3-4 players, and then Q high wins the pot and I just folded 9pair because I think with so much action and a K on the turn that its best to fold. I think the problem is that I am playing a limit that allows people to play stupid and not loose much, so I think that I will move back up and hopefully be beaten by good playing and good hands. Please tell me where your playing now because I really need a good passive game where I don't loose so much playing a good hand.
    • tomzyb
      tomzyb
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2007 Posts: 623
      I play at PokerStars. But i play SH not FR. I played 0.25/5 FR some time ago and it was allso great. I think at PokerStras you have the most FL tables on micros and low stakes out of all the platforms, so you can allways find enaugh good ones (depends how many tables you want to play at same time).
    • tomzyb
      tomzyb
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.08.2007 Posts: 623
      So i will quit playing on PokerStrars once an for all. This is the worst donkey-supportive site that have ever and ever will be existing. After 20k hands downswing in FL, i am allso getting terribly beaten by 210 FPP sngs, i am getting sucked out by 3-outers or less 14 times more than i get them in last 65 turneys. That includes getting aces cracked for the last 7 times by underpair or Ax tipe of hand.
      So i am only spending the remaining FPPs than cash out and never return again to this site where only bad players get rewarded X( .
    • terrygilham
      terrygilham
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2008 Posts: 95
      well i do play NL rather then FL but if it makes you feel any better i got AA busted 6/7 times yesterday, mainly by donkeys pushing with shit, 3 times was against pockets, one quad hit and 2 trips, then the other 3 were hands like Q3s.
    • One12ver
      One12ver
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.05.2008 Posts: 249
      I would not quit PokerStars, but just take a break for a while from the site.
      I know some players are bad there, but when you get out of your slump these guys will be the ones paying you! As you can see last week I was Bronze and now silver and this is because I am now back to hitting flops and the "donks" are there giving me back(and more) my money that they won over the past month with shit playing. 10€ more and I am back to even. So keep playing a good game and the winning will come soon, and while not playing poker stars you can come play at Titan, because when you do catch a win streak it wont take long at ipoker to win all the lost money back. :D
    • TerrorBlade
      TerrorBlade
      Black
      Joined: 16.10.2007 Posts: 1,922
      tomzyb I know what it's like if you check out my blog you'll see what I mean...I think during my downswing I also tightened up which is perfectly natural cause it's hard to keep playing crap hands when you lose every time (even with AA/KK) . You have to keep open raising with T7o etc. from the SB cause it's ev+ in the long run and remember to post hands and watch videos and I HIGHLY recommend making a video of your own cause everyone will be able to see your leaks easily ;)

      DON'T GIVE UP! At least you didn't lose 4K (out of 5K) in a month =)

      Also don't quit pokerstars it's the best site for a FL player.
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