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[NL20-NL50] KQs turn K hit double barreled

    • Gonchan
      Joined: 14.06.2011 Posts: 2,877
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      CO: $54.64 (109.3 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $50 (100 bb)
      SB: $50 (100 bb)
      BB: $132.67 (265.3 bb)
      MP: $20.04 (40.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q K
      MP folds, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

      Flop: ($4.75) J 7 T (3 players)
      BB checks, CO bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, BB calls $3.50

      Turn: ($15.25) K (3 players)
      BB checks, CO bets $11, 2 folds

      $15.25 pot ($0.76 rake)
      Final Board: J 7 T K
      CO mucked and won $14.49 ($9.49 net)
      Hero mucked Q K and lost (-$5 net)
      BB mucked and lost (-$5 net)

      CO 31/20/83
      BB 37/18/51

      I doubt CO would bet turn with weaker hand and There was enough bluff.

      Turn call was fine?
  • 1 reply
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909

      You have TP + OESD to the nuts so your hand looks quite good.

      Let's say we give him the absolute best hand he can have here:

      Board: J:club: 7:diamond: T:spade:  K:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    20.82%  14.65%   6.17% { KsQs }
      MP3    79.18%  73.00%   6.17% { KK+, JJ-TT, 77, AQs+, KQs, JTs, 98s, AQo+, KQo, JTo }

      That means we can't call just with pot odds. However, we only need him to bet or call a couple of times when we hit river. Now, if we had some club draws:

      Board: J:club: 7:diamond: T:spade:  K:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    27.46%  22.63%   4.83% { KsQs }
      MP3    72.54%  67.71%   4.83% { KK+, JJ-TT, 77, AQs+, KTs+, JTs, 98s, AcTc, QcTc, Ac9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Tc8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 7c6c, AQo+, KJo+, JTo }

      You can see your equity is very close to BE. If you are confident in your river decision making you can probably call here profitably. That said, being IP should help so I assume calling with something like 5% less equity than needed against his range is fine given implied odds and being IP. You can also encourage BB to come along with a weak hand thus giving yourself better odds.