[NL2-NL10] AKo 032113-

    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      8 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($11.79) 118bb
      UTG+1 ($18.43) 184bb
      MP1 ($10.74) 107bb
      MP2 ($10.19) 102bb
      Hero (CO) ($10) 100bb
      BTN ($14.42) 144bb
      SB ($10.14) 101bb
      BB ($4) 40bb

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 8 players) Hero is CO A:club: K:heart:
      4 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.80, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2, SB calls $1.20

      Flop: 7:heart: 10:diamond: 6:club: ($4.10, 2 players)
      SB bets $3, Hero folds
  • 11 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Nip,

      Preflop: looks fine but I'd prefer a larger 4-bet to about 21-22 BB there.

      Postflop: He does donk often but with a lack of equity and just overs (and no reads) it is just a fold.
    • nipbourne
      nipbourne
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,597
      but I'd prefer a larger 4-bet to about 21-22 BB there.

      why? more FE?
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      The 4bet size is defiantly fine, since we are ip and ~2 -2.5x leave us more space on flop.

      The question is should we even 4bet since against 5% top of his range we are actually flipping.

      88+,AJs+,KQs,AKo - 53.68%
      AdKs - 46.32%

      Even if we change it a bit, since he most likely just flat whit AJ,AQ hands and include some suited connectors that he could 3bet we are flipping anyway.

      TT+,AKs,T8s+,97s+,87s,AKo - 52.29%
      AdKs - 47.71%

      I would rather just flat his 3bet and play ip.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by sausage646
      The 4bet size is defiantly fine, since we are ip and ~2 -2.5x leave us more space on flop.

      The question is should we even 4bet since against 5% top of his range we are actually flipping.

      88+,AJs+,KQs,AKo - 53.68%
      AdKs - 46.32%

      Even if we change it a bit, since he most likely just flat whit AJ,AQ hands and include some suited connectors that he could 3bet we are flipping anyway.

      TT+,AKs,T8s+,97s+,87s,AKo - 52.29%
      AdKs - 47.71%

      I would rather just flat his 3bet and play ip.
      So you expect his entire 5% range to continue there?

      He will have hands that will fold and then hands that he goes with, so there is value in a 4-bet from taking down dead money and then from the 5-bet part.

      4-bet size doesn't matter as much IP/OOP because the stack to pot ratio, if called, will be small anyway and reduce the effect the position has.

      I'd make it bigger for pure value because i would not recommend having many 4-bet bluffs in this spot.
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      Originally posted by BogdanPS

      So you expect his entire 5% range to continue there?

      He will have hands that will fold and then hands that he goes with, so there is value in a 4-bet from taking down dead money and then from the 5-bet part.
      .
      I guess the ones he will call will be worst than our?

      Can you please give the range hands he will call/raise/fold from that 5%range?

      I kinda feel you advice to isolate ourselves against better hands.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by sausage646
      Originally posted by BogdanPS

      So you expect his entire 5% range to continue there?

      He will have hands that will fold and then hands that he goes with, so there is value in a 4-bet from taking down dead money and then from the 5-bet part.
      .
      I guess the ones he will call will be worst than our?

      Can you please give the range hands he will call/raise/fold from that 5%range?

      I kinda feel you advice to isolate ourselves against better hands.
      Before we get into that discussion, what's the purpose of a 4-bet, in your opinion?

      Let's take a simple example:

      I open BTN to 3 BB
      I get 3-bet to 10 BB from SB
      I 4-bet to 22-23 BB from BTN with AKo

      Why do I 4-bet? To get it in? Or?
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      why we bet at all?

      1. To make better hands to fold
      2. To make worst to call

      1. Since we are not trying to make better hands to fold the only reason why we 4bet is for value. But I don't see any value here, in those 5% I see only that we are isolating ourselves against better hands.

      Since I answered your question how about that 5% range (bet/fold/raise) so I can agree with your "4bet for value" scenario :) ?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by sausage646
      why we bet at all?

      1. To make better hands to fold
      2. To make worst to call

      1. Since we are not trying to make better hands to fold the only reason why we 4bet is for value. But I don't see any value here, in those 5% I see only that we are isolating ourselves against better hands.

      Since I answered your question how about that 5% range (bet/fold/raise) so I can agree with your "4bet for value" scenario :) ?
      You didn't really answer my question :)

      When I get 3-bet and we 4-bet is for value but value comes in multiple ways.

      The main value comes from him either calling us with worse OR folding to our 4-bet. When he folds we collect a lot of dead money. When we get the money in we generally break even and not make a ton of profit.

      Now, from that 5% I think that we can expect to stack off vs JJ-AA and AK and can expect to get called by AQ/TT type hands.
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      Ok so we have 5% of range - the 3/5 of those is -> JJ+,AKs,AKo

      JJ+,AKs,AKo - 60.22
      AcKh - 39.78

      1) so 3/5 we lose 20.44%(60.22-39.78) if we get it in that would be 20$*0.2244= -4.488$

      2) 1/5 he calls whit his AQ (I doubt that he would call 4bet op with TT) /idk how to calculate this one but lets assume it will be x=?

      x=how much we win in the pots where he calls our 4bet op

      3) and folds 1/5 where we win +0.95$


      0(break even) = (3*(-4.488))+(1*0.95)+(1*x)
      (edit:actually here is an eror too 3*4.488 = ~12, but that goes over the 10$ max that we can get out of him so doesn't change the point I guess.)
      0=(-10.464)+(0.95)+(x)
      0=-9.514+x
      9.514=x
      x=9.514

      so we need to win at least 9.514$ in pots where he calls with AQ hands. do you excpect to get 9.514$ in pots where he calls 4bet op? And that's just for break-even.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      You have to double check your math because it's not 20.44% * $20.

      Can you explain how you calculated the 1 and assumptions you've made?

      For 2 I would assume he calls TT and maybe JJ as well (since it's FR he may call other hands as well like AK/QQ which makes calling a 5-bet a mistake).

      Actually, now that I look at it closer we may not even be able to call a shove given how small we 4-bet.

      We need to call 8 into a pot of 20 which means that we need 40% equity + rake so it's very marginal.
    • sausage646
      sausage646
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.03.2010 Posts: 567
      - Yesterday, 21:00 -
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Now, from that 5% I think that we can expect to stack off vs JJ-AA and AK.
      - Today, 00:13 -
      Originally posted by BogdanPSFor 2 I would assume he calls TT and maybe JJ as well (since it's FR he may call other hands as well like AK/QQ.
      You do understand that now you are changing things you said ?

      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Can you explain how you calculated the 1 and assumptions you've made?.
      -->
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Now, from that 5% I think that we can expect to stack off vs JJ-AA and AK.
      1)
      JJ+,AKs,AKo - 60.22%
      AdKh - 39.78%

      --->
      The first one has an error yes now I see, it should be like this:
      how much we win/lose = (20.1*0.3978) - 10
      how much we win/lose = 7.995 - 10
      how much we win/lose = -2.00$

      As for assumptions they where taken from your previous post I changed just the TT part since I

      highly doubted that he could call 4bet whit TT op, actually I doubted about AQ but made calculations

      anyway.
      Originally posted by BogdanPScan expect to get called by AQ/TT type hands..
      from 5% range: (I did rounded to make calculations easier, though it shouldn't change a lot)

      1) hands he raise: JJ+,AKs,AKo - 3.02% from ALL card combinations or 3.02/5 from our 5% range

      [in my previous post I rounded it to 3/5]

      2) hands he calls: AQs,AQo - 1.21% from ALL card combinations or 1.21/5 from our 5% range [in my

      previous post I rounded it to 1/5]


      3) hands he fold: 5 - 3.02 - 1.21 = 0.77% from all hands or 0.77/5 from our 5% range [in my

      previous post I rounded it to 1/5]


      x=profit or loss times he calls

      profit or loss = (times he calls*1) + (times he folds*1) + (times he raises*3)
      profit or loss = (x*1.21) +(0.9$*0.77)+((-2$)*3))
      profit or loss = 1.21x+0.693$-6$
      1.21x = 5.307$
      x = 3.385$ -------> conclusion I shouldn't round up numbers and should double check before posting... :)

      I guess last question: do you except us getting at least 3.385$ in pots he calls if Yes than I have no other questions.