[NL20-NL50] KJ squeeze

    • daisuke3823
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,321
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:


      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      BB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J, K.
      MP3 folds, CO raises to $0.71, BU calls $0.71, SB folds, Hero raises to $3.00, CO folds, BU raises to $7.50, Hero folds, BU gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $3.81.

      CO  153 hands vpip23 pfr21 open from CO 35  fold to 3 bet 88  call 13    BU  230 hands vpip21 pfr16 wtsd27 fold to 3 bet 100                    

      BU 4 bet but BU didnt 3 bet agaisnt CO so I think he doesnt have QQ+,AK.
      99~JJ are possible ,but my hands have 41.5% equity against this range.
      and with fold equity ,can I push?
  • 1 reply
    • w34z3l
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,330
      Hey Daisuke,

      I wouldn't necessarily discount all strong hands from BTNs range. CO has a high Ft3bet and it would make sense to flat strong hands against him.

      Even if BTN did not have QQ+/AK he can conceivably have things like AQ/KQ/AJ . And assuming he will play AK/KK/AA this way (wouldn't be unreasonable vs CO), you are going to be in bad shape. Btw, the most relevant equity here is the equity we have vs villains range that continues to a shove, not total equity vs range which is going to be way less than 41%.

      Bottom line is you will end up needing a lot of folds to compensate for your equity disadvantage getting the money in. Best option is going to be to fold imo. Not as if shoving is ridiculous, but I tend to give people credit for slowplaying AA/KK here unless I know otherwise. If villain folds more than 65% you will generate instant profit regardless of your equity. So even with a very small amount of equity the fold-equity you need will be lower than this.