[NL20-NL50] NL 50 - 69s fd on flop

    • VasiliZaitsev
      VasiliZaitsev
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.05.2008 Posts: 77
      UTG: $42.04 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 14, 3B: 9, AF: 5.0, Hands: 28
      Hero (CO): $50.75 - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 3.4, Hands: 11210
      BTN: $89.83 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 18, 3B: 7, AF: 1.4, Hands: 1800
      SB: $39.45 - VPIP: 36, PFR: 14, 3B: 0, AF: 0.8, Hands: 22
      BB: $69.38 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 8, AF: 2.5, Hands: 20169

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with 6 :diamond: 9 :diamond:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, BB calls $1

      Flop: ($3.25) K :diamond: 8 :club: T :diamond: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.00, BB raises to $6.50, hero ?

      fold to cbet 41%, raise cbet 16%
      agg freq: 40,26,26


      how should we proceed here ?

      thanks
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Vasili,

      Preflop: a bit loose but we'd like to isolate SB who seems to be fishy.

      Postflop: Based on the stats that you have for villain, which are many, what range can you assign him for the ck/raise?

      How does our hand do against that range?

      Also, take into account your smaller cbet on a very connected board which can induce bluff/weak semibluff raises.

      Given that we bet so small and could have induced an aggro guy to raise I can't see folding as a great option.

      But before we give a verdict I'd like to see your opinion regarding his range and our bet size.

      As a side note, when you leave a reply, please hit the advise judge to take another look button.

      Best regards,

      Bogdan
    • VasiliZaitsev
      VasiliZaitsev
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.05.2008 Posts: 77
      Hi Bogdan,

      I think that agains his ck/r/shove range is something like this: TT,88,KTs,AdQd,AdJd,Ad7d. Against this range we have 33-35% equity. So given this i computed the folding eq that we need so our 4bet-shove would be profitable and i was disappointed to see that we need 50% folding equity.
      I computed this before posting the hand but i wanted a fresh opinion, cause i'm going through a downswing and i might see monsters everywhere.

      I don't really know about his ck/r/folding range but it should contain at least 13 combos (given the hands i said he would ck/r/shove).

      Sooooo ..... i'm still not sure ... but i guess a fold would be ok if my cbet would've been $2.5.
      What are your thoughts ?

      Thanks again.

      Edit: i was on my way out and wrote this in a hurry. i guess there is also some merit in just calling and there are some scenarios where he would ck/fold but i think that overall this play is -ev
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by VasiliZaitsev
      Hi Bogdan,

      I think that agains his ck/r/shove range is something like this: TT,88,KTs,AdQd,AdJd,Ad7d. Against this range we have 33-35% equity. So given this i computed the folding eq that we need so our 4bet-shove would be profitable and i was disappointed to see that we need 50% folding equity.
      I computed this before posting the hand but i wanted a fresh opinion, cause i'm going through a downswing and i might see monsters everywhere.

      I don't really know about his ck/r/folding range but it should contain at least 13 combos (given the hands i said he would ck/r/shove).

      Sooooo ..... i'm still not sure ... but i guess a fold would be ok if my cbet would've been $2.5.
      What are your thoughts ?

      Thanks again.

      Edit: i was on my way out and wrote this in a hurry. i guess there is also some merit in just calling and there are some scenarios where he would ck/fold but i think that overall this play is -ev
      We can also add some T8s combos in there but as you said we need a lot of FE there however, given our small cbet, I think it's possible that he does have a lot more combos of bluffs/weak semibluffs so I'd be tempted to go for the 3-bet. And if he ships it comes down to pot odds really.

      Now, if the games you play in are not generally aggro and you don't g et raised often then we might as well just fold.