This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL2-NL10] NL10 AT toptwo vs donk/Jam. (with results)

    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $10.00
      CO: $6.40
      Hero (BTN): $10.00
      SB: $14.00
      BB: $4.60

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with T :spade: A :heart:
      UTG raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1.00) A :spade: 6 :diamond: T :diamond: (3 players)
      SB bets $0.60, UTG calls $0.60, Hero raises to $1.65, SB raises to $13.70, UTG folds, Hero calls $8.05 all in

      Turn: ($21.00) 3 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      River: ($21.00) 5 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      Final Pot: $21.00
      Hero shows T :spade: A :heart:
      SB shows 6 :club: 6 :heart:
      SB wins $20.06
      (Rake: $0.94)

      303 hands on SB and he is 21/16, 3%call open on SB, 1.8% overall 3Bet, 50% flop aggression and he didn't donkbet on previous 3 chances he had to.

      Again, this has to do with how I should interpret results. I keep getting these situations with top two and get it in thinking "KQ QJ w/ or without FD's etc, there should be enough in his range to let me call but I don't like it".

      I think that over-bet jams are somewhat more likely to be draws than sets in general so there will be some big differences in these various hands and I'm sure I must have some sort of selective memory going on, because I only seem to be able to remember that they just always have the one set in their range that I give them.

      (note, I'm ignoring the times when I feel his range is 'obviously' containing enough air, flush draws etc to make the shove good, the spots I'm talking about always happen vs TAGs or Nits)

      So now I have to ask myself the question, "Do I have the wrong impression of what villains ranges are in this position?"
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      It's purely a matter of pot odds vs pot equity.

      pot odds = 8/21 = 38.1%
      pot equity = go count your equity vs sets/A6s/combo draws

      i'm pretty sure you have more than enough here.
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Scenario 1:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 41.78% 25.62% 16.16% AhTs
      MP3 58.22% 42.05% 16.16% 66, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, ATo

      Scenario 2:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 46.69% 32.04% 14.65% AhTs
      MP3 53.31% 38.67% 14.65% 66, A6s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, ATo

      Those ranges are purely combo draws + set + two-pairs. I'm only so far behind that I can find a fold when he has this range or tighter;

      Scenario 3:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 34.04% 34.04% 0.00% AhTs
      MP3 65.96% 65.96% 0.00% 66, KdQd, QdJd