[NL2-NL10] NL10 AT toptwo vs donk/Jam. (with results)

    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $10.00
      CO: $6.40
      Hero (BTN): $10.00
      SB: $14.00
      BB: $4.60

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with T :spade: A :heart:
      UTG raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1.00) A :spade: 6 :diamond: T :diamond: (3 players)
      SB bets $0.60, UTG calls $0.60, Hero raises to $1.65, SB raises to $13.70, UTG folds, Hero calls $8.05 all in

      Turn: ($21.00) 3 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      River: ($21.00) 5 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      Final Pot: $21.00
      Hero shows T :spade: A :heart:
      SB shows 6 :club: 6 :heart:
      SB wins $20.06
      (Rake: $0.94)

      303 hands on SB and he is 21/16, 3%call open on SB, 1.8% overall 3Bet, 50% flop aggression and he didn't donkbet on previous 3 chances he had to.

      Again, this has to do with how I should interpret results. I keep getting these situations with top two and get it in thinking "KQ QJ w/ or without FD's etc, there should be enough in his range to let me call but I don't like it".

      I think that over-bet jams are somewhat more likely to be draws than sets in general so there will be some big differences in these various hands and I'm sure I must have some sort of selective memory going on, because I only seem to be able to remember that they just always have the one set in their range that I give them.

      (note, I'm ignoring the times when I feel his range is 'obviously' containing enough air, flush draws etc to make the shove good, the spots I'm talking about always happen vs TAGs or Nits)

      So now I have to ask myself the question, "Do I have the wrong impression of what villains ranges are in this position?"
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      It's purely a matter of pot odds vs pot equity.

      pot odds = 8/21 = 38.1%
      pot equity = go count your equity vs sets/A6s/combo draws

      i'm pretty sure you have more than enough here.
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Scenario 1:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 41.78% 25.62% 16.16% AhTs
      MP3 58.22% 42.05% 16.16% 66, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, ATo

      Scenario 2:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 46.69% 32.04% 14.65% AhTs
      MP3 53.31% 38.67% 14.65% 66, A6s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, ATo

      Those ranges are purely combo draws + set + two-pairs. I'm only so far behind that I can find a fold when he has this range or tighter;

      Scenario 3:

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 34.04% 34.04% 0.00% AhTs
      MP3 65.96% 65.96% 0.00% 66, KdQd, QdJd