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[NL2-NL10] NL10SH AA 4bet pot ugly flop (w/ combo counting)

    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      MP: $8.15
      CO: $28.78
      BTN: $4.57
      SB: $12.84
      BB: $10.67
      Hero (UTG): $10.15

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is UTG with A :spade: A :diamond:
      Hero raises to $0.35, 1 fold, CO raises to $1.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, CO calls $1.25

      Flop: ($5.15) K :diamond: 5 :club: K :spade: (2 players)
      Hero ???????

      Villain is 21/17 on 160 hands. He has 5.1 overall 3bet.

      Some card combo counting:

      If villain 3bets a range of JJ+ AK vs me and somehow calls all of those hands to a 4bet, then on the flop he has

      1 combo of AA
      1 combo of KK
      6 combos of QQ
      6 combos of JJ
      2A's available, 2 K's available = 4 combos of AK

      I split with 1, beat 12 and lose to 5 combos.

      If he commits with all those combos except JJ when I play passively from flop representing JJ myself I will split once, lose 5 times and win 6 times.

      6.5/12 wins > 50% equity So I would have to commit despite losing such an extraordinary amount of the time.

      If he were to only bet 1/2 his QQ combos, and always jams AA and KK preflop we see this;

      4 combos AK
      3 combos QQ

      we win 3/7 times so still now 42%, and we need 38% equity.

      (we need to call $7.65 and the pot if we called a jam would be $20.3 - $? rake. 7.65/20 = 0.3825)
  • 4 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I don't think those assumptions are true. He is definitely likelier to push AK/KK/AA preflop as opposed to the weaker hands like AQ/JJ/TT. You need to discount those even more.

      Bet 1.50 on the Flop with your entire range, and if the turn brings some sort of draw you should push the Turn.
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      I was stating some "if" scenarios. What other options could I try?

      1. He 5bet 75% of the time with KK+?
      2. He 5bets 50% of the time with AK and QQ
      3. He 5bets 25% of the time with JJ?
      4. He 3bet/calls 25% of the time with TT?
      5. He 3bet/calls with AQs 25% of the time?
      6. He 3bet/Calls A2s-A5s of hearts?

      That would be 0.25 combos AA, 0.25 combos KK, 2 combos AK, 3 combos QQ, 4 combos JJ, 2 combos TT, 1 combo AQs and up to 5 combos of random Axs.

      total = 15.5 combos, only 2.25 of those combos beat me.

      That new analysis feels a really over optimistic lol. Not sure what his range really is.
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      I would discount aa kk ak qq by 50%.

      We beat 9 combos of jj qq and lose to 3 combos of aa kk ak. Since we are ahead of 3 times more combos than we are behind, we have an easy value bet on the turn. I think he should call at least 1/3 or more of the time with his bluffcatchers.
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      thanks a lot. I'm finding 4bet pots fairly ridiculous and nonsensical at the moment. I guess that might have something to do with my own style not containing a planned range for calling 4bets, hence I find it somewhat bemusing when opponents do it.