[NL20-NL50] J9o vs aggro fish broke

    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 23.25, PFR: 18.92, 3Bet Preflop: 6.62, Hands: 1,894)
      UTG: 20.76 BB (VPIP: 32.03, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 14.88, Hands: 315)
      MP: 140.62 BB (VPIP: 21.80, PFR: 18.46, 3Bet Preflop: 9.77, Hands: 1,106)
      CO: 228.72 BB (VPIP: 40.74, PFR: 38.89, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 54)
      Hero (BTN): 100 BB
      SB: 50.64 BB (VPIP: 22.07, PFR: 20.26, 3Bet Preflop: 10.40, Hands: 1,037)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J:club: 9:diamond:

      fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

      Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 9:heart: 3:heart: 8:spade:
      CO bets 5.62 BB, Hero calls 5.62 BB

      Turn: (18.74 BB, 2 players) 4:diamond:
      CO bets 14.04 BB, Hero calls 14.04 BB

      River: (46.82 BB, 2 players) 9:club:
      CO bets 33 BB, Hero raises to 77.34 BB and is all-in, CO calls 44.34 BB

      CO shows 9:spade: A:club: (Three of a Kind, Nines) (Pre 71%, Flop 84%, Turn 93%)
      Hero mucks J:club: 9:diamond: (Three of a Kind, Nines) (Pre 29%, Flop 16%, Turn 7%)
      CO wins 195.5 BB



      I marked him as aggro fish. I am not sure if my hand is ok to call IP. Is river overplay?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Preflop: i see the same mistake - overreliance on small sample of stats. Fold or 3b here

      River: what worse hands are calling u here? How strong is your kicker? How often does he bet aa kk qq jj tt on the river (and call a raise)?

      We lose to a9 k9 q9 98 and full houses. We beat T9 and overpairs (which i think he would often cc river with).
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      Originally posted by mbml
      Hi.

      Preflop: i see the same mistake - overreliance on small sample of stats. Fold or 3b here

      River: what worse hands are calling u here? How strong is your kicker? How often does he bet aa kk qq jj tt on the river (and call a raise)?

      We lose to a9 k9 q9 98 and full houses. We beat T9 and overpairs (which i think he would often cc river with).
      I agree about preflop, it was mistake. I think many hands might call river. Since he is fish, he can call A8, A3, A4, any PP, even with AK, AQ if he doesnt beleive me, because fd missed. I know that when he calls me I am not going to win 99% of time, but since he is fish I expect to win the hand most of the time. Versus nitty guy I would just call, versus regg I would definitely shove because reggs try so often to bluff catch with A high, or PP.

      Ok how would you play in villians place, when you would have TT+? I guess you would check call river with those hands, but would you fold if you check river and I go all in, and I am unknown to you? I think I would call it, because there are many fd missed, and most people raise flop or turn with sets, 2 pair to protect.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Btw i think iso3b vs someone who seems fishy is a better line than calling by far. We dont want others in the hand.

      I suggest you break down his entire river betting and calling range. Come up with an optimistic and conservative estimate (mine is pessimistic and yours is optimistic and maybe u habe an intermediate range). See all 3 ranges and try understanding how thin/fat your value is.

      IMO even if your assumptions are somewhat true the value is pretty thin still. And if ur assumptions are false you are valuecutting youeself big time. Post them here and lets discuss again.

      You can either count combos directly or insert into equilab and see whether your equity is above or below 50%