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[NL20-NL50] NL50 JJ call 3bet BUsb

    • double2
      double2
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP: $56 (112 bb)
      CO: $62.49 (125 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $50 (100 bb)
      SB: $50 (100 bb)
      BB: $50 (100 bb)
      UTG: $42.70 (85.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with J J
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1.12, SB raises to $4, BB folds, Hero calls $2.88

      Flop: ($8.50) Q Q K (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($8.50) T (2 players)
      SB bets $4, Hero calls $4

      River: ($16.50) 8 (2 players)
      SB bets $7.50, Hero folds

      Results:
      $16.50 pot ($0.74 rake)
      Final Board: Q Q K T 8
      Hero mucked J J and lost (-$8 net)
      SB mucked and won $15.76 ($7.76 net)


      20k hands
      25/19/6.5%
      3bet vs steal SB 8%
      3bet vs open BU 11.3%
      fold to 4bet 49%
      5bet range 2.5% (68)
      cbet flop/turn in 3bet pot 66/65
      WTSD 25%
      WWSF 45%
      Agg freq 43/34/27

      No 3bet/5bet dynamic.

      NH?
  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Hey,

      How often do you think he checks here with Qx or a flushdraw on the flop?

      If not, seems like a solid spot to shove because he looks like KJ, KT, AK which is hard to believe will call a shove on the river. Calling is out of the question imo because he does indeed look like Kx like 90% of the time but there is a possibility of bluffing him off most his range because of his flop check imo. Any thoughts on that?
    • double2
      double2
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      Originally posted by EmanuelC16
      Hey,

      How often do you think he checks here with Qx or a flushdraw on the flop?

      If not, seems like a solid spot to shove because he looks like KJ, KT, AK which is hard to believe will call a shove on the river. Calling is out of the question imo because he does indeed look like Kx like 90% of the time but there is a possibility of bluffing him off most his range because of his flop check imo. Any thoughts on that?
      Yeah, I don't think he checks flop with Qx or FD that often. Hands that plays like this are usually Kx, TT and not much more, maybe some bluffs.

      I didn't consider turning my hand into bluff river. Anyways I don't have that many Qx and flushes myself since I checked back flop. Dunno if that makes him hero call Kx river, but the fact is I had to be able to turn showdown value into bluff cause I have always something once I check back flop.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Well, you always have some showdown value but that can be A high and can also be some slowplays but more it definitely still keeps Kx in his range when in a 3bet pot the flop comes KQQ. What matters most is if he can call Kx, if he is capable of thinking at that level because your move can represent a bit plus the likelihood of someone turning hand into a bluff is lower than you slowplaying or hitting something to raise for value imo. Not perfect vs a very thinking player ofc but decent spot. I still think we should not call because he has Kx way too often.