[NL20-NL50] AK fold turn

    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,565
      iPoker - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: 111.68 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)
      UTG: 123.74 BB (VPIP: 22.44, PFR: 19.69, 3Bet Preflop: 9.99, Hands: 1,863)
      MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 20.25, PFR: 16.57, 3Bet Preflop: 5.97, Hands: 2,757)
      Hero (CO): 116.82 BB
      BTN: 59.28 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
      SB: 160.1 BB (VPIP: 23.10, PFR: 19.88, 3Bet Preflop: 9.60, Hands: 1,007)

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K:diamond: A:heart:

      UTG raises to 3.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 3.5 BB, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: (8.5 BB, 2 players) 6:diamond: K:club: J:club:
      UTG bets 7 BB, Hero calls 7 BB

      Turn: (22.5 BB, 2 players) Q:heart:
      UTG bets 20 BB, fold

      UTG wins 21.38 BB

      Is fold turn ok? Q is horrible, so I win only versus fd.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Hi.

      Why dont u give him a reasonable range for betting turn and compare your equoty vs the pot odds?

      Rmb to take into account his pf range. He is 22/20, not sure if u have positional open stats but i think he opens 13--15% of starting hands here so he will not have that many flush draws.

      I think we should probably call again but his overly large turn bet worries me.
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,565
      Originally posted by mbml
      Hi.

      Why dont u give him a reasonable range for betting turn and compare your equoty vs the pot odds?

      Rmb to take into account his pf range. He is 22/20, not sure if u have positional open stats but i think he opens 13--15% of starting hands here so he will not have that many flush draws.

      I think we should probably call again but his overly large turn bet worries me.
      He opens 17% EP. bets 50% flop turn 80%

      I was never posting from Equilab, so I am not sure how to show the cards from board? I just copy pasted text.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 53.92% 41.86% 12.06% JJ+, AQs+, ATs, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, AQo+
      MP3 46.08% 34.02% 12.06% AhKd

      Also I dont understand what is the point of thinking about our equity after the hand? I have only 15 sec for a move in Ipoker, so I cant use equilab to make optimal move. Is it only to have a feeling approximately how much equity on such a board we have?

      I am not sure how realistic is the equity, where I have 34% equity, because I think I am completely crashed versus his range. Because of his low cbet flop 50%, and his huge bet sizes on both flop and turn which looks like nuts hand and protecting (I guess he wouldnt bet so large with fd), so this reads tells me that I am completely crashed here, and would win maybe once in 10 times if I call down.

      also what would you do if he shoves river on blank? And what would you do if he shoves when flush completes? Do we expect to win when he checks river and flush completes? I dont think we win in many scenarios here. The best scenario would be that flush draw misses and he checks river, where I win middle size pot.

      Maybe I am too pesimistic in this hand, but what I want to say, I am mostly relying on my reads about his cbet % and bet sizes, and how he would play fd here and nuts or air, than relying on equilab equity. Also even if he is unknown, I would also rather rely on my reads how average fish or reggs play with nuts or draws in Ipoker NL50.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Do the homework outside the game. When u play u will have a very good feel for the numbers and that will greatly help in decision making.

      50% cbet is overall cbet, not cbet for this particular situation. We use those numbers to approximate.

      I think someone like this will usually check flop with pocketpairs but cbet all his gutshots and flushdraws and backdoor draws.

      Im very surprised we are doing so well on the turn (or is that flop?) Give him 66 and remove aq, i think he checks that on the turn.

      Pot odds are around 31-32%, maybe our true equity is 35%? Its close. Know how close the turn decision is, then we can further discount our equity on the river (assuming we get bluffed out of our hand some % of the time)