Quiz Question

    • xxxxxx192RNMD
      xxxxxx192RNMD
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.02.2011 Posts: 24
      "Question 1.2.

      Stacks & Stats
      BB ($100.00) (34/4/0.7/32/321) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]
      SB ($100.00)
      UTG ($100.00) (40/12/1.2/30/180) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]
      MP ($100.00)
      CO ($100.00)
      Hero ($100.00)

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 4 :diamond: , 5 :diamond:
      UTG calls $1.00, 1 fold, CO calls $1.00, Hero calls $1.00, 1 fold, BB calls $1.00

      Flop: ($4.50) 3 :diamond: , K :diamond: , T :club: (4 players)
      UTG checks, MP bets $3.00, Hero...

      How do you continue playing?

      fold (0 Points)
      call (3 Points)
      raise (1 Points)

      Your answer fold (0 Points)
      Hero hit the flop acceptably. We did pick up a flush draw, even though it's not the best one. The unknown MP now bets. Folding right away would be too weak here. We might be in a 4-handed pot and can hardly estimate the action from both BB and UTG, but their stats allow us to categorize them as the calling station type. This means we can safely assume that no one will raise after us and completely ruin our odds.

      But as calling stations are inclined to call a lot and we have two of them in the hand, I don't think raising is profitable in this spot. We probably only have minor fold equity and MP can have a strong hand if he decides to bet into 3 players. A call probably gives us great odds and is the best choice here by far."



      I figured the answer would be to fold because I do not have pot odds but since the answer was to call due to the calling stations, I'm assuming it's due to implied odds? But even if you called and the two called after you wouldn't that be 13.5:3 ratio, translating to 4.5? And the odds of getting your flush on the next card would be 47:9, roughly translating to 5:1. Which should be a fold as far as I can see. Thanks in advance for any helpful advice.
  • 9 replies
    • JCSeerup
      JCSeerup
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 1,039
      First of all, didn't MP fold pre???

      Anyway we get really good implied odds here and we get 2,5:1 pot odds, so we only need our opponents to put $4,5 in the pot to make it correct. So this is a clear call IMO.
    • xxxxxx192RNMD
      xxxxxx192RNMD
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.02.2011 Posts: 24
      In order for it to be correct, we'd need both players after hero to call .. even if they are calling stations it seems a little presumptuous to assume both of them will call.
    • JCSeerup
      JCSeerup
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 1,039
      Have you read the article Mathematics of Poker: Implied Pot Odds?

      When we talk about implied odds, it's not about how much we can win now, but how much we can win if we hit our hand, so in this case we call with 7,5:3 because we believe we can get at least an other $4,5 from him if we hit the turn.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi

      If u dont call here u might as well fold pre.

      Firstly u have implied odds. Secondly u assume that u cannot bluff to win.

      These two factors allow us to call here. Rarely in nolimit will we be given direct pot odds to hit our draw.
    • martinemem
      martinemem
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 596
      If we use fps in this hand, after 2 callers we could shove 100 bb also with this hand, then show the fishes the hand. Then wait 100 hands (roughly ~1-2 hours) then shove again when we get QQ KK AA. If we asume we win around 80% of the time, we win ~93+93-5%rake/2 = 70,68$ pr hour.

      Or maybe it would have same effect if u tripple the pot on flop after the pf call to the callers, and u get called, and mis, u just give instantly up AND auto rebuy to max, but if u hit u just shove the turn, and if they fold flop, then u show them 1 4 or 1 5, not both imo(if they fold flop), and again wait 100 hands for the QQ KK AA, and then openshoves if u get the same limpers again u have 2 possible outcomes:
      80% win with a stack of 100$(-21.50$) so 100+100-5%rake/2 = 55.2$ pr hour. (asuming whe dont hit on turn) but avg 66,324$
      OR
      80% win with a stack of 106.5$~99.5$ after 100 hands+99.5-5%rake/2 = 75.62$
      So if he folds 70% to the tripple flop its like ~72,8312$ hourly

      So look like 2nd option is best, and have not taken in concideration that we hit and he call the turn.

      D MINUS pls

      :coolface:
    • JCSeerup
      JCSeerup
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 1,039
      Originally posted by martinemem
      If we use fps in this hand, after 2 callers we could shove 100 bb also with this hand, then show the fishes the hand. Then wait 100 hands (roughly ~1-2 hours) then shove again when we get QQ KK AA. If we asume we win around 80% of the time, we win ~93+93-5%rake/2 = 70,68$ pr hour.

      Or maybe it would have same effect if u tripple the pot on flop after the pf call to the callers, and u get called, and mis, u just give instantly up AND auto rebuy to max, but if u hit u just shove the turn, and if they fold flop, then u show them 1 4 or 1 5, not both imo(if they fold flop), and again wait 100 hands for the QQ KK AA, and then openshoves if u get the same limpers again u have 2 possible outcomes:
      80% win with a stack of 100$(-21.50$) so 100+100-5%rake/2 = 55.2$ pr hour. (asuming whe dont hit on turn) but avg 66,324$
      OR
      80% win with a stack of 106.5$~99.5$ after 100 hands+99.5-5%rake/2 = 75.62$
      So if he folds 70% to the tripple flop its like ~72,8312$ hourly

      So look like 2nd option is best, and have not taken in concideration that we hit and he call the turn.

      D MINUS pls

      :coolface:
      I really don't think this is as good as you make it look, there are too many factors to make this mathematical a good move.

      1. The players might not play an other 100 hands at the table.
      2. They might not remember the hand
      3. They might fold pre when you hit your AA, KK, QQ
      4. You can't just play like a jerkface 1% of the time and expect to get payed off in the future because of it.
      5. You can play AA, KK, QQ more profitable in the long run anyway.
    • martinemem
      martinemem
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2011 Posts: 596
      1. The players might not play an other 100 hands at the table.


      But can we hope for this isnt the last time ever he plays poker?

      2. They might not remember the hand


      We make them remember

      They might fold pre when you hit your AA, KK, QQ


      Ofc they might, if they dont have a hand, but u set them up for calling with JTs+ 66+ (remember, they ARE fishes?) We could also instead just raise 20bb or something instead. If one of the fishes just won a hand.

      4. You can't just play like a jerkface 1% of the time and expect to get payed off in the future because of it.


      This is the beaty of it, who say you dont get AA the hand after? And who says you dont get AA then KK then AA then QQ then KK then AA (tried it myself once)

      5. You can play AA, KK, QQ more profitable in the long run anyway.


      That depends on more than 10000 things. This example is where you play on a site with no segregation where there are more than 1 fish at the sh tables, so why not making them think about you, and make them think you are worse than them?

      This was supposed to be a troll post, that would implie how the hell he can fold a fd to theese players, by saying that doing what i suggested in first pot would make more money than folding fd to fishes.

      I guess i had to cut it out in cardboard. Sorry :D
    • JCSeerup
      JCSeerup
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 1,039
      Originally posted by martinemem
      This was supposed to be a troll post, that would implie how the hell he can fold a fd to theese players, by saying that doing what i suggested in first pot would make more money than folding fd to fishes.

      I guess i had to cut it out in cardboard. Sorry :D
      I was wondering if it was a troll post, but you seemed to have put so much effort in to it that I thought it might be for real.

      And btw. it might work if your suggestion might work if your an unknown or have very fishy stats, but otherwise most people won't spazz out over it.
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      dont really get why ur calling it pre if u wanna fold a flop where u flop a FD... what do you wanna flop with it then? quads?

      just fold it pre if u want to fold it on this flop