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[NL20-NL50] SH NL50 zoom 78s vs 3bet OTF

    • dooleslovs
      Joined: 17.02.2011 Posts: 485
      PokerStars - $0.50 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BTN): $97.94
      SB: $50.46 (VPIP: 23.41, PFR: 21.03, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 259)
      BB: $58.16 (VPIP: 25.71, PFR: 17.14, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 36)
      UTG: $54.72 (VPIP: 18.57, PFR: 14.05, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 428)
      MP: $60.98 (VPIP: 20.62, PFR: 19.21, 3Bet Preflop: 8.45, Hands: 359)
      CO: $41.05 (VPIP: 23.53, PFR: 23.53, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 18)

      SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has 7:spade: 8:spade:

      fold, MP raises to $1.50, fold, Hero calls $1.50, fold, fold

      Flop: ($3.75, 2 players) T:diamond: 3:spade: J:spade:
      MP bets $3.50, Hero raises to $10.00, MP raises to $22.50, Hero ??

      Vilains oR 20% from MP cbets 83% Flop so I think its good to raise OTF, he folded 2/2 to flop raises before, vs his 3bet/call range I have decant EQ:

      Board: T:diamond: J:spade: 3:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    36.85%  36.85%   0.00% { 8s7s }
      MP3    63.15%  63.15%   0.00% { TT+, 33, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, Ts9s }

      And he should have 3bet fold range too, so I think this hand is strong to raise/push, becouse it feels like burning money when we raise fold such strong hand OTF. What do you think?
  • 1 reply
    • w34z3l
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,332
      Hey dooleslovs,

      Usually this hand would go into my flatting range on flop. I prefer to raise with hands like gut-shots with a back-door-draw where it's a clear fold vs 3bet, or hands like Q:sK where you don't even need to think about what to do vs a 3bet.

      Mostly I would assume you have no fold equity in the flop and villain is committed. If we imagine villain is shoving and calculate our odds - we need about 40% equity to stack off. So you will need some fold equity to make a shove profitable. It could be doable but will be pretty break even unless villain is folding quite a lot. A hand like QKs vs the same range (blocks monster-draws) has closer to 50% equity and doesn't matter if we have fold-equity or not, it'd just be an added bonus.