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[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH - AKs hits top 2 pair on suited flop

    • ILuvBeachVB
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 390
      No Limit Hold'em $0.10/$0.25
      Full Tilt Poker
      5 players
      Formatted by - Mac OS X hand history analysis and tracking

      UTG - UTG ($18.88)
      CO - CO ($29.98)
      BTN - BTN ($6.94)
      SB - SB ($26.14)
      BB - Hero ($30.29)

      Preflop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is BB with A:spade: K:spade:
      UTG raises to $1.00, 3 folds, Hero raises to $3.00, UTG calls $2.00

      Flop: 2:heart: A:heart: K:heart: ($6.10, 2 players)
      Hero bets $4.00, UTG calls $4.00

      Turn: 5:club: ($14.10, 2 players)
      Hero bets $12.69, UTG calls $11.88 (all-in), Uncalled bet of $0.81 returned to Hero

      River: 2:diamond: ($37.86, 2 players)

      Total Pot: $37.86

      Villain: 43/24/1.5/37/98 [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/# hands] FT3B=11%

      Do you go for it here vs loose player even though flop is suited? The A&K block many flush combos but this guy doesn't fold to 3bets, so there are still a lot of flushes in his range.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      If he can have a ton of speculative hands preflop which gives him many combos of flushes here, he can have AQ AJ AT A9 A8 A2s-A7s. If he's a fish he's never ever folding top pair here on the Turn.

      If he's never folding top pair on the Turn, then we are beating way more hands and losing to way fewer hands. Thus we have a lot of value in a bet, and that would be the only logical choice.