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25nl QTo vs btn steal - how does he have a value hand here?

    • nooni2k
      Joined: 03.04.2012 Posts: 206
      Button stealer is a reg who I haven't seen get out of line much.

      BB is a huuuuge passive calling station playing sth like 65/0/0, so I think it's okay to flat preflop as QTo plays quite well multi way.

      *Surely* if btn has a value hand on the flop, or even a good draw, he would bet to inflate the pot vs the fish!? Instead he checks a wet flop, and then goes nuts on the turn.

      Other than turning a set I really struggle to put btn on a value hand here.
      possibilities include
      7T/78hh/JThh/66/22/99 but surely these all bet the flop to get value from the fish

      IPN (Boss Media) - €0.25 NL - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BTN: €26.97
      Hero (SB): €27.62
      BB: €67.55
      UTG: €26.64
      MP: €12.13
      CO: €24.25

      Hero posts SB €0.12, BB posts BB €0.25

      Pre Flop: (€0.37) Hero has Q:heart: T:club:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to €0.50, Hero calls €0.38, BB calls €0.25

      Flop: (€1.50, 3 players) 6:diamond: 2:heart: 9:heart:
      Hero checks, BB checks, BTN checks

      Turn: (€1.50, 3 players) 8:spade:
      Hero bets €1.00, fold, BTN raises to €3.75, Hero raises to €10.00, BTN raises to €26.47 and is all-in, fold

      BTN wins €20.45
  • 3 replies
    • nooni2k
      Joined: 03.04.2012 Posts: 206
      I feel like I've missed something here...

      is this not the right place to post HHs? Do I need to be bronze/silver before I can get hand evaluations?

      help a n00b out :)
    • fastliketiger
      Joined: 02.12.2010 Posts: 15
      As played (and you probably know this yourself) fold turn to raise. During the heat of a session whenever a guy is raising you it is very easy to think he is making a play (specifically because this guy is on the button) and its a good spot to make a play as it does look like you are 'stabbing' here. If as you say the 'reg' on BTN is competent I would presume he understands the concept of leverage and is not raising 3.75x as any sort of bluff or even semibluff as it has to work SO often for it to be profitable. risking 3.75 to win 2.5 doesn't make sense yet if he were to raise to 2.5 or 2.75 then based upon his estimated equity when called he actually needs you to fold under 50% of the time for it to be profitable but by his raise size it immediately screams value and his sizing sets up a river shove perfectly.

      I would be _VERY_ surprised to see anything other then 107 here possibly J10hh but unlikely as I think all flushdraws and sets are betting that board vs a station in BB trying to bloat the pot. The 107 on the other hand its highly likely BTN does not want to bloat with a gutshot vs a station in BB and is happy to take a free card in position and possibly even delayed cbet overcards.

      Q10o is a reasonable defend as justified by fish in BB but keep in mind your OOP to both and the difference between calling and folding here is pretty marginal dependent on your post flop game.
    • nooni2k
      Joined: 03.04.2012 Posts: 206
      Epic response fastliketiger, ty sir.

      In my OP I had put 7T in the range the he would cbet on the flop but you're right it makes perfect sense for him to check it in this situation.

      Sucks that we actually block some combos of it with our own hand but it really is the only hand that makes sense for him other than, as I said, possibly 88 turning a set.

      I'll admit his raise sizing should've been taken into account too, though in my defence many people do make bad betsizes at this level.

      thx again