[NL20-NL50] NL50 TT preflop

    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Gold
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,562
      Prima, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (SB): $53.83 (107.7 bb)
      BB: $15 (30 bb)
      MP: $50 (100 bb)
      CO: $97.50 (195 bb)
      BTN: $15.87 (31.7 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with T:spade: T:club:
      MP raises to $1.50, CO folds, BTN calls $1.50, Hero raises to $6, BB folds, MP calls $4.50, BTN raises to $15.87 and is all-in, Hero?

      Anon. table. Unknown opponents.

      I think the 3bet is ok.

      After MP just calls with the short stack behind? I guess his range is very strong and i have to fold?
  • 7 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Don't 3b if you are not willing to play for stacks. I think BU could easily be pushing 77/88/99 and some AQ hands. It's definitely possible that he slowplays some monsters preflop vs tight MP/UTG opening ranges but I think this is a pretty easy call IMO especially with the extra dead money added by MP.

      I think that MP is a slight underdog vs us, given that he did not 4b preflop vs our squeeze.
    • AchillesBG
      AchillesBG
      Gold
      Joined: 06.02.2011 Posts: 4,562
      I was happy to call vs. BTN. My concerns was about MP.

      I did overshoved and MP called me with AA. I wanted to check if overshoving is the correct play and i`m just result orientated in this hand, or i did smth. wrong. Thank you for the analysis!
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hmm I take back what I said about being a favourite vs UTG (i think it's close, maybe we are breakeven w 50% vs his range), but I still think we have enough to stack off here. I think MP overcalls with enough lower pocketpairs and maybe some suited broadways so I think he would fold a decent amount.

      I forgot to mention that given that since BU is short, MP has greater incentive to slowplay AA/KK here as BU would often shove over the top. But anyway this is still a call.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      bleh sorry for going back and forth, still seems like we are a big favourite, unless i add many more combos of AA/KK/QQ,

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 58.67% 58.46% 0.21% { TT }
      MP3 41.33% 41.12% 0.21% { AA, 99-77, KdKs, KhKs, KsKc, AQs+, AQo }


      However, I think that when we ship, he folds all worse hands while calling with better hands.

      The main argument for shipping here is that
      1) He has worse hands more than he has better hands
      2) There is a lot of dead money in the pot to justify shoving here.
    • GingerKid
      GingerKid
      Black
      Joined: 05.08.2007 Posts: 5,530
      Originally posted by mbml
      bleh sorry for going back and forth, still seems like we are a big favourite, unless i add many more combos of AA/KK/QQ,

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 58.67% 58.46% 0.21% { TT }
      MP3 41.33% 41.12% 0.21% { AA, 99-77, KdKs, KhKs, KsKc, AQs+, AQo }


      However, I think that when we ship, he folds all worse hands while calling with better hands.

      The main argument for shipping here is that
      1) He has worse hands more than he has better hands
      2) There is a lot of dead money in the pot to justify shoving here.

      Just wondering, how would our play change versus known opponent.

      1) Opponent is often slowplaying JJ+
      2) Opponent is almost never slowplaying JJ+

      I think we can fold versus 1) since we are not sure even if we are ahead of BTN, and if UTG calls we are mostly crashed. And versus 2) it is easy shove since he is almost always going to fold.
      Also I think if our opponent is type 1) it depends how often UTG calls sqeeze, because if he calls often enough (also with AT-AKs, and lower PP, suited connectors) then we can still shove, because we have a lot of FE.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      In my opinion we are ahead of BU. I think his range here is AJ+,22+ and maybe he has some other random crap that he shoves here. Based on his stack size I think he's likelier to be a fish, rather than a reg. Most short stack players don't really have calling ranges. He should also be 3betting JJ+/AK most of the time.

      So i think we should assume that we are breakeven vs BU at the very least, but we are pretty likely to be ahead. I gave him a range of 22-QQ, AJ+ (im assuming that he slowplays a stronger overpair half the time).

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 36.93% 36.27% 0.66% { QQ-22, AJs+, AJo+ }
      MP3 63.07% 62.41% 0.66% { TT }
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      What about MP? Let's say he slowplays here always, and also opts to flat 88/99/KQs/AQ/AJs and folds to a jam from us with those hands.

      1) Situation 1 - We jam, MP calls with JJ-AA, AK, BU has the range mentioned above. 40 combos out of 76 combos (52.6%)

      Side pot of $68 - We get back 33.65% X 68$ = $22.9

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 66.35% 66.14% 0.20% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
      MP3 33.65% 33.45% 0.20% { TT }

      Main pot of $48 - 28% X $48 = $13.4

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 50.62% 49.72% 0.90% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
      MP3 28.03% 27.81% 0.22% { TT }
      CO 21.35% 20.35% 1.00% { QQ-22, AJs+, AJo+ }

      We put in $44 more, get back $36.3, We are losing 7.3$ on average

      2) Situation 2 - We jam, MP folds with 88,99,KQs,AQ,AJs, BU has the range mentioned above. 36 combos out of 76 combos (47.4%)

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 36.93% 36.27% 0.66% { QQ-22, AJs+, AJo+ }
      MP3 63.07% 62.41% 0.66% { TT }

      Main pot of $38 - We get back 63% X 38$ = $24.1
      We are putting in ~$10 more, and getting back $24.1, We are winning $14.1 on average.

      Total EV = 0.474 X (24.1) + 0.526 (-7.3) = $7.6

      I already gave fairly pessimistic assumptions about villains' ranges and the play is still pretty profitable. Note that I assumed BU slowplays half the time preflop, and MP always slowplays preflop with JJ+/AK