[NL2-NL10] 99 overpair

    • Locito
      Locito
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2008 Posts: 51
      iPoker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      BB: $19.50 (VPIP: 20.42, PFR: 16.63, 3Bet Preflop: 5.59, Hands: 496)
      Hero (UTG): $10.35
      CO: $13.96 (VPIP: 19.66, PFR: 15.73, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 184)
      BTN: $18.87 (VPIP: 16.49, PFR: 13.40, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 198)
      SB: $10.00 (VPIP: 15.56, PFR: 12.45, 3Bet Preflop: 2.33, Hands: 266)

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 9:spade: 9:diamond:

      Hero raises to $0.35, CO calls $0.35, BTN calls $0.35, SB calls $0.30, fold

      Flop: ($1.50, 4 players) 5:heart: 5:spade: 3:diamond:
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.00, fold, BTN calls $1.00, fold

      Turn: ($3.50, 2 players) 3:heart:
      Hero bets $2.00, BTN calls $2.00

      River: ($7.50, 2 players) J:spade:
      Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50

      Hero mucks 9:spade: 9:diamond: (Two Pair, Nines and Fives) (Pre 18%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
      BTN shows T:club: T:spade: (Two Pair, Tens and Fives) (Pre 82%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
      BTN wins $11.67


      Any advice ? think he could have had 66-88 in just the same amount of cases and that he would also call with that, or is that a wrong assumption?
      the bet on river was bit a block bet, maybe just check since he will have difficulties betting for value with anything? or shove it to really rep big pair and make him fold 10s ? or like I did and hope next time he shows 88 ?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,696
      Hi.

      Flop bet seems fine.
      Turn bet is kind of iffy. I don't really think we can go for 3 streets of value here.

      Firstly this is a 4way pot, you have to be insanely strong to bet both F and T here. I think it would be really optimistic to expect 66-88 to call 3 streets. Not to mention you did not include any A5s/A3s/55/33 in villain's range (6 combos of hands).

      I think river is definitely a c/f. And i would have checked the turn.

      Thanks.
    • Locito
      Locito
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2008 Posts: 51
      but with a calling range of around 3% is it not like hard to include A5s, A3s??
      and on the turn already check/fold? can understand on river but seems kind of weak to me to give it up on the turn.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,696
      you have a point about A3s/A5s but he's getting better pot odds with 2 players in front of him. so i don't think we can completely rule those out.

      about c/f Turn: It's not that it's a weak play, but that he virtually has no air here after calling your flop cbet. and i don't think he bets weaker pairs on the turn. of course if you have reason to believe that he could somehow show up with worse hands then a c/c would seem more reasonable.