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[NL2-NL10] NL10SH 4bet pot JJ, Overcard turn. bad combo counting

    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      SB: $13.95
      BB: $9.02
      UTG: $9.80
      Hero (CO): $10.04
      BTN: $24.21

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with J :heart: J :diamond:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, BTN raises to $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.35, BTN calls $1.35

      Flop: ($4.85) 5 :heart: 5 :spade: 2 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.30, BTN calls $2.30

      Turn: ($9.45) A :club: (2 players)

      Villain is 34/19 player with 17.1% 3bet on 93 hands. Positional info tells me they 3bet a lot on SB, BB and BU although its still early days.

      I'll do some imagination stuff now and see what he might have if he's a kind of loose slightly spazzy player:

      Villain Combos flop:

      Slowplays: 1 AA combo, 1 KK combo,

      Weakly played premiums: 4 AK, 3 QQ, 0.5 JJ

      Weaker hands: 10 to 16 AQ combos, 5 to 12 AJ combos, 5 of 6 TT combos, 4/6 99 combos, 2/6 88 combos

      random: 1/6 77 combos, 1/6 66 combos, 2 to 5 Axs combos, 1 combo like J8s or something.

      Villain Turn combos:

      Pocket pairs: 1 AA, 1 KK, 3 QQ, 0.5JJ, 5 TT, 4 of 99, 2 of 88, 1 of 77, 1 of 66.

      if he calls with his Ax on flop roughly half the time he will have:

      5 to 8 AQ, 2.5 to 6 AJ, 2 Axs.

      TP or better: 1 AA and 9.5 to 15 Ax = 10.5 to 16 combos

      better but not TP: 4 KK and QQ that may fold

      worse than us: 13 worse pocket pairs.

      between 14.5 and 20 better hands than us that might be able to call a shove, up to 13 worse hands that either won't call a shove or may check down.


      Even if villain is this spazzy that he can have that much Ax he will still have quite a lot of worse hands. That means a jam is probably +ev due to only needing 33% fold equity except we have 39 to 49%.

      I don't know with what hands he will jam turn to a check but if we had a read he had perhaps 5 AQ combos and would jam 88 and lower to a check we could also quite profitably C/C vs a Jam and CK down vs KK QQ and TT of which we win more than losing as well.
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi DaPhunk,

      Preflop: Since he seems fishy I'd 4-bet larger here assuming that a lot of fishy guys love to call 4-bets.

      Postflop: I like your analysis there but I think jamming would be correct. But I think that on the flop, if villain has been aggro so far, we can go for a ck/shove.
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      You make a great point about 4bet sizing. Standard in position vs the 3bettor I like to make all 4bets 2.1x his 3bet size (without reads) and OOP vs 3bettor I increase the size to 2.4x the 3bet size.

      I am not entirely sure whether I like that OOP 4bet size, perhaps 2.5x vs TAG style players and 2.8x vs players with over i dunno.... 35 pfr 12%3bet?

      (oh, it should be noted that vs players with a 9 or 10% or greater 3bet range I have a balanced 4bet bluff and 4bet value range)

      Thanks on the analysis, I thought it was a superior ingame at the time and wanted to check. However even outside the game I couldn't think how +ev a Check/Call would be and I made a rather lame guess saying "if we know" :f_p: