[NL20-NL50] nl20Sh JJ bluffcatch?

    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      hey guys

      Vill: 29/21/1,1 after 276 hands
      fold to cb: 18
      fold to turnbet: 17
      he looks like a loose reg.

      I thought this was an okish pot to bluffcatch. I don't think he has a set since he'd raise those. Same w/ 2 pair hands. So I think he has busted draws and a lot of Tx hands.

      I'm a bit tilty to write more thoughts, but right now I'm liking my play.

      So with those stats I think he'll have to bluff the river rather often to make a profit. Also his sizing is rather big and doesn't look like he wants to get called.

      Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (CO): $29.63 (148.1 bb)
      BTN: $34.74 (173.7 bb)
      SB: $20.40 (102 bb)
      BB: $15.20 (76 bb)
      MP: $20.25 (101.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with J J
      MP folds, Hero raises to $0.60, BTN calls $0.60, SB calls $0.50, BB folds

      Flop: ($2) 4 8 T (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.60, BTN calls $1.60, SB folds

      Turn: ($5.20) 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.20, BTN calls $4.20

      River: ($13.60) A (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $10.20, Hero calls $10.20

      Results:
      $34 pot ($1.70 rake)
      Final Board: 4 8 T 3 A
      Hero mucked J J and lost (-$16.60 net)
      BTN showed T 7 and won $32.30 ($15.70 net)
  • 5 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Ras,

      Preflop: What sample do we have on the guy? What's his 3-bet? 1.1 %?

      Postflop: Flop and turn are fine. What's his range on the river?

      Can you please list it? Then try to look at that range and see what would/could play like this.

      For example, I can't see Tx or other pairs (other than Ax) betting that much. So clearly the river bet is polarized.
    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Hey Bodgan!

      Here are his stats.
      VP$P: 29
      PFR: 21
      AF: 1,1
      Tot 3b: 15,2 (79)
      3b otb: 6,7 (15)
      Fold 2 cbet: 18
      Fold 2 turnbet: 17
      Hands: 276

      River range
      I think since we are both a bit deeper he never has a set or 2 pair because he would raise me earlier in the hand. So he's got a 1 pair hands and a lot of busted straight draws. Because he's so loose I think he can have most connectors (probably suited). And then the club FD as well.

      Now what will bet the river? His A8 and AT and maybe his A high flushdraws but he might check that behind as well. I'll add them in my range just to make it worst case scenario. All his 1 pair hands I think he's going to check behind because of SDV.

      So this is worst case scenario imo and vs that I can make a profitable call. I need at least 30% of equity and I got 36%


      Board: 4:club: 8:diamond: T:club:  3:diamond:  A:diamond:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    63.89%  63.89%   0.00% { ATs, A8s, QJs, J9s, 97s, 76s, 65s, Ac9c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac3c, ATo, Ah8d, As8d, As8h, Ac8d, Ac8h, Ac8s }
      MP3    36.11%  36.11%   0.00% { JdJc }


      Thanks Bogdan!

      Ras
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hey Ras,

      Good work there.

      I think that you are missing a few potential draws like KQ or QTdd.

      Try to add those in (although it shouldn't change much).

      Also, as a side note, how did you come up with that range? Did you simply plug them in or work your way from preflop?
      I wouldn recommend the second way.
    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Hey bogdan!

      Well I took a lot of time. Thats also why I didn't post more details yesterday. It almost took me an hour to figure out what he would bet with. I just looked at the board and thought about if I were to play very loose which hands would get to the river.

      I put this range into equilab to have a visual backup. Then I took out all the SDV hands and tadaa.

      Why don't you recommend using the 2nd method? Shouldn't we always start from pre and work out way through the streets?

      Plus you agree that I could bluff catch here profitably?

      Regards

      RasTweet
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by RasTweet
      Hey bogdan!

      Well I took a lot of time. Thats also why I didn't post more details yesterday. It almost took me an hour to figure out what he would bet with. I just looked at the board and thought about if I were to play very loose which hands would get to the river.

      I put this range into equilab to have a visual backup. Then I took out all the SDV hands and tadaa.

      Why don't you recommend using the 2nd method? Shouldn't we always start from pre and work out way through the streets?

      Plus you agree that I could bluff catch here profitably?

      Regards

      RasTweet
      OOPS,

      I wrote wouldn't instead of would.

      That's the method I highly recommend.

      We don't want to add random hands on one street, we want to start from the beginning.

      So you start with his cold calling range.

      And then you narrow it down on the flop and then turn and then you finally reach the river and have a range. That range is what he sees the river with so now we have to look at what he may bet.

      We need to be good roughly 31% of the time and plus rake roughly 33% of the time. That means, based on your calculation, that you may be slightly above 0 EV if we call. I wouldn't say that we can bluffcatch really profitably but it would probably be slightly better than break even.