[NL2-NL10] NL5 ZOOM: river decision 3b pot

    • Zeffke
      Zeffke
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2007 Posts: 1,123
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $9.13 (91.3 bb)
      SB: $10.33 (103.3 bb)
      Hero (BB): $10.79 (107.9 bb)
      UTG: $47.90 (479 bb)
      MP: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
      CO: $7.04 (70.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A T
      UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.90, MP calls $0.60

      Flop: ($1.85) 4 Q A (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.97, MP calls $0.97

      Turn: ($3.79) 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.99, MP calls $1.99

      River: ($7.77) 8 (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP bets $6.29 and is all-in, Hero folds

      Villain stats (20 hands):
      37/26/0.8
      12.5/0/0
      50/0/40

      Since he isn't that aggro I don't see me beat a lot of hands. I don't think he will turn missed draws into a bluff on the river. Correct fold?
  • 4 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Why do u think he is not turning missed draws into bluffs? Ill call here.
    • Zeffke
      Zeffke
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2007 Posts: 1,123
      I only see him have missed hearts then... With me having Ah makes even that less combos. That combined with his low AF (after 20 hands) made me fold.

      I have a hard time playing rivers... can you recommend me some video/book. The articles on ps.com are very basic about riverplay.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hmm actually you may be right, upon 2nd thought. I would like to know his fold to Flop cbet. The higher this number is, the less likely he is to have backdoored spades, and the more favourable calling becomes.

      What can the fish have on the River?

      Better hands
      JTs (calls flop with a gutshot and turned OESD)
      KsJs, KsTs (Some straight draws which hit some backdoor flush draw)
      AQ, AJ, A9s, A8s (better top pairs with stronger kickers)
      8h9h

      Worse hands
      KhJh (likely to raise the Flop as it is a combo draw)
      Jh9h, Jh8h, 8h7h, 8h6h (unlikely to turn those into bluffs)
      AX (probably checking back on river with these hands)
      5h6h,6h7h,5h7h (the few suited connectors with no Showdown value)

      I think we got the worst river in the deck so c/f seems like the better play.

      What about other rivers?

      -2 of diamond: I think this is a snap call
      -8 of diamond: Close, now we still lose to JTs but we beat some backdoor draws like KsJs and KsTs which is another 2 combos of hands we beat
      -2 of spade: I think this is a better card than the 8 of diamond. The 8 basically coordinates the board and I think way more hands benefit from the 8, than from the spade. 8 improves JT and gives many more hands some sort of pair value.

      About the AF

      From my experience, many fishes have very low Flop and Turn AF, and relatively higher River AF. These players usually play really passively on the earlier streets and take free cards, and then bluff on Rivers when they have no showdown value any longer. Your sample is a little too low for us to make a decisive read on his river tendencies.
    • Zeffke
      Zeffke
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.04.2007 Posts: 1,123
      Thanks for the detailed river evaluation. No sample on fold to cbet. Well yeah he folded 0 out of 1 time. :)