[NL2-NL10] [SH] River sizing with set?

    • GreenPiece
      GreenPiece
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players

      BTN: $5.17
      SB: $5.00
      BB: $5.00
      UTG: $8.85 - unknown
      MP: $5.65
      Hero (CO): $5.36

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has J:heart: J:spade:

      UTG raises to $0.12, fold, Hero calls $0.12, fold, fold, BB calls $0.07

      Flop: ($0.38, 3 players) K:club: 8:diamond: T:spade:
      BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.25, fold, UTG calls $0.25

      Turn: ($0.88, 2 players) J:diamond:
      UTG checks, Hero bets $0.67, UTG calls $0.67

      River: ($2.22, 2 players) 6:spade:
      UTG checks, Hero ?
  • 7 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Flop: Why are we betting here?

      Turn: Standard after we pick up the set

      River: Well i see no reason to check now. Main question is how large we should be betting now. I think 1.60 should be fine here
    • GreenPiece
      GreenPiece
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      My reasons for betting flop were:
      1) everyone checked (including PF-aggressor), it's unlikely someone has the hand that beats mine;
      2) I'm no happy to see A, Q, 9 (in spite of arrived draw) on the turn and give free cards to lesser pockets (if both of them have PPs, it's 4 outs vs me).

      Do you think it shouldn't be bet?

      On the river I went for 1.7 but the opponent folded.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      1) Even if everyone is unlikely to have you beat, the question is whether you are getting called by worse on average (is there value in a bet?)
      2) PFR could check some weak KX and QQ here
      3) A/Q/9 only comes on 25% of Turns, on the other 75% of turns we are still doing ok - Protection betting can be done on the Turn.

      Betting makes more sense if
      -PFR plays really straight forward (you expect him always to c/f here)
      -You expect your opponents to call you with some draws and some TX hands (some thin value from a bet)

      What is your plan if you get called here and you face a river bet on a blank runout? Are you calling? Are you folding?
    • GreenPiece
      GreenPiece
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      It depends on the opponents remaining in the pot. Vs 2 I intend to fold, vs one I'm gonna see his sizing and then decide whether to call or to fold.

      I see that you're against betting on the flop :) So can you please explain if the reason to take the pot immediately isn't good enough to justify this bet? Of course I don't see many worse hands calling me here neither can I perform bet as a bluff but these two guys together have some outs vs me (say, A, Q at least) and if they see no one bet flop some of them can bet turn mayhap forcing me to fold the best hand.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      in general when i cannot find a good reason to bet i would just check. and i think betting purely to take down the pot immediately isn't really a strong reason for a bet here. our hand isn't all that vulnerable as mentioned in my previous post.
    • GreenPiece
      GreenPiece
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      And what is your plan on the turn & river after flop goes checks? Will you call bets on both streets (and what sizing)? Will you bet you yourself if there are checks before you?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      if it gets checked around on the Turn again I would bet cos I think JJ is probably the best hand now. You could even consider betting half pot on the River again.

      Assuming the runout is blank
      If someone leads the Turn I'm definitely calling once and deciding on river vs normal 2/3 pot bets (probably calling if I think villain is aggro). If someone makes 2 huge pot bets or suddenly overbets the river that would be much tougher, maybe you can fold vs larger bets.